New Year, Same Ford Problem: But Investors Shouldn't Panic

Investors have been hearing for years that Ford Motor Company (F 2.51%) is working diligently to improve its vehicle quality and lower its recall figures. There is evidence Ford is indeed improving quality of its newer vehicles, but many problems still exist on older vehicles that will remain in the fleet for many years.

Recalls and warranty costs are simply part of doing business in the automotive industry, and generally these recalls don’t impact the stock – but when it does, it’s a big problem. Let’s dig in to how this abnormally large Ford recall could play out.

What’s going on?

Last year, Ford recalled a record 12.9 million vehicles, per the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. It didn’t take long for the Detroit icon to begin this year’s tally in earnest with last week’s recall of 4.3 million vehicles, including some of its top-selling F-Series pickup trucks. For context, this recall alone nearly matches its vehicle recall total from 2024.

The issue itself is that when a trailer is being towed, the Integrated Trailer Module could lose communication with the vehicle, potentially causing a loss of brake and turn signal lights, and possibly even loss of brake function. Ford is aware of 407 incidents, although so far no crashes, that may be related to this specific issue.

Image source: Ford Motor Company.

Here’s the silver lining

Fortunately for investors and Ford, not all recalls are created equal, especially in today’s age of more sophisticated computing and software technology in vehicles. Because this is a software error, Ford will address the issue with an over-the-air software update, making this far less expensive than if it required a vehicle to be brought in for hardware repairs.

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NYSE: F

Ford Motor Company

Today’s Change

(-2.51%) $-0.30

Current Price

$11.85

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$48B

Day’s Range

$11.80 - $12.00

52wk Range

$8.44 - $14.79

Volume

12M

Avg Vol

63M

Gross Margin

6.52%

Dividend Yield

4.94%

To be fair, while this recall should mostly remain irrelevant financially for investors, it is absolutely a topic investors have to stay on top of now. For instance, Ford shares dipped more than 18% in late July 2024 after Ford missed second-quarter earnings estimates, largely because warranty expenses spiked $800 million higher compared to the first quarter. That spike drove Ford’s second quarter 2024 warranty expenses to roughly $2 billion, or about 4% of its sales, which is high for an automaker. Barron’s noted that between 2011 and 2019, warranty expenses averaged about 1.6% of sales.

At the end of the day, this is a rare massive recall figure, but due to its over-the-air software fix, it’s just a reminder that Ford still has work to do on quality. Investors need the warranty expense surprises to stay in the rearview mirror.