Let's talk about the big cycle logic of Bitcoin today, connecting several key factors.

First, let's discuss the halving.
Historically, the typical bull market cycle usually begins to brew about a year before the halving. After the halving, miners' production costs will significantly increase, and from past cycles, even at the most conservative estimates, the price at the bull market top has generally been at least 1.5 times the mining cost.
Based on current models, the mining cost around the 2028 halving is estimated to reach approximately $120,000.
Next, I want to highlight a policy variable I've been looking forward to — the Clear Bill.
Currently, we are still in the stage of negotiations and refining clauses, but the trend suggests it’s only a matter of time.
Some might ask: Even if it passes, how much funding could it bring?
My view is that the pension sector may not be overly exaggerated, but it’s not insignificant either, with an estimated potential scale of around one trillion dollars.
Another point that’s easy to overlook:
New accounting standards are gradually opening the door for institutions to put Bitcoin onto their balance sheets, which is actually a very critical step for institutional allocation.
Considering these factors, the next bull market’s space—whether it’s $200,000, $250,000, or $300,000—is hard to predict now, but the logical path is becoming clearer.
Back to the short-term market.
Is $60,000 the bottom of the bear market? I’m hesitant to make an absolute judgment.
But if you ask me: Is $60,000 the phase bottom of this correction?
I am quite confident about that.
If the market starts to rally toward the second target, I haven’t changed my position and my stop-loss remains below $60,000.
The risk-reward ratio, in my opinion, is still quite reasonable.