3.24 Jian Xi Morning Analysis

Yesterday, gold exhibited a typical wash-out pattern, quickly dropping to the 4090 level amid panic selling, followed by a reflow of buying interest and a sharp rebound in price, currently consolidating near 4440. From an overall structural perspective, this round of upside movement is not a trend reversal, but merely a technical correction following the sharp decline. One should not misinterpret this as renewed strength from the bulls; the trend structure has not fundamentally changed.

On the news front, market logic has shown a clear shift: Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, which theoretically provides safe-haven support for gold, but as oil prices rise in tandem, inflation expectations are heating up again, directly suppressing expectations for Fed rate cuts. In a high interest rate environment, gold as a non-yielding asset faces obvious pressure, which is also the core reason why recent bullish developments have not driven prices higher, and prices have even pulled back after spiking. The primary driver of gold prices has currently shifted from safe-haven demand to interest rate dynamics.

The 4-hour chart: Gold remains below the middle Bollinger Band, with the bands opening downward, indicating the bearish trend remains intact;
The 1-hour cycle: Transitioned from a one-way decline to sideways consolidation, entering a correction phase;
The 15-minute chart: Although showing some upward movement, it repeatedly encounters resistance and pulls back, forming a typical weak rebound pattern.
Overall, the trend is essentially a range-bound correction within a rebound, not a sign of a new bullish trend starting.

Resistance levels: 4460, 4500, 4510-4520
Support levels: 4400, 4350, 4300

Consider deploying short positions in batches within the 4460-4500 range.
Target levels: 4400, 4350, 4300