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Things are developing differently here.
I'm still seeing lots of blanket comparisons from this current range to the previous one from $80k to $98k...
But they are actually forming quite differently.
Let's take a look.
Firstly, they do look similar at first glance.
Both gradual and rising, looking like a bear flag, cant deny that.
But structurally they have key differences, with this range showing more strength.
In January we had the sideways range into:
1. Liq grab to $98k and then drop
2. Pushed all the way below the trendline, showing weakness
3. A retest of that lost trend
4. Harsh nuke lower
This time it is looking a lot different:
1. Liq gab and drop
2. Held the trend support
3. Bullish engulfing candle back above the range showing strength
And it is still holding above a few days later.
In January, there was clear weakness.
Now, there are multiple signs of a stronger floor.
In addition, In january, OBV was very flat with no spikes of strength.
Now, we have a clear OBV breakout that it is currently holding.
Objectively, this range is far stronger and is being bidded much more. We have absorption happening here, whereas in January, we did not.
What we need as confirmation for higher is a $74,400 break and hold on the weekly chart.
If we start losing $68,000 then a lower sweep is on the cards.
Regardless though, there is more strength in this consolidation and therefore any move lower would be far more muted than the previous range.
Which supports my worst case scenario that any move lower would be a deviation, no lower than $55k.
These are positive signs for the overall floor that is being built here though imo.