🚨BREAKING

THE TURNING POINT IN THE UKRAINE WAR IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW?
For the first time in months, Russia is no longer advancing as well as loosing control of Kupyansk.
And the timing is not random.
Something changed in February.
Russia has effectively stopped gaining ground over the last month (Feb 25-Mar 25) -4 sq mi vs +152 sq mi YTD according to Russia Matters (ISW).
The shift lines up with the February Starlink cutoff on Russian forces.
Reports indicate terminals used by Russian troops were deactivated, disrupting communications — and Ukraine exploited that with counterattacks (Reuters, ISW/CTP).
And it’s already visible on the map:
• Ukrainian forces are pushing Russia back in the Kupyansk direction and securing middle strike control
• Continued pressure across Zaporizhzhia sectors
• Russian advances increasingly stalled or reversed locally
Pressure is building behind the front:
• Economic strain
↳ talks of ~10% budget cuts (Reuters)
• Oil flows hit
↳ drones disrupt exports (Reuters)
• Logistics under stress
↳ infra & supply chains targeted (OSINT)
The key factor: losses are compounding
• ~65,000 Russian casualties in ~2 months (NATO/Reuters)
• ~1.1-1.2M total war losses (Western estimates, CSIS)
• In some periods, losses exceed recruitment capacity
Inside Russia itself cracks are forming:
• Mass mobile internet shutdowns across Moscow & regions
↳ outages expanded nationwide, including the capital (RFE/RL, WSJ)
• Navigation, payments, communications disrupted
↳ maps, banking, services intermittently unavailable (WSJ)
• Businesses taking direct losses
↳ payments, logistics, operations impacted (FT)
Now there’s a bigger geopolitical layer:
Recent analysis (The New York Times) suggests the war in Iran is forcing Putin to rethink strategy, as Russia is being stretched across multiple fronts.
Moscow is balancing Ukraine with rising Middle East instability — while also watching allies weaken, reducing its leverage (Le Monde).
There are also signals of backchannel talks and pressure to negotiate (Reuters, OSINT).
For months, the map only moved one way. Now it’s moving back.
Nevertheless, the war remains a grinding attrition conflict on multiple fronts, with Russia still holding the vast majority of occupied territory (~20% of Ukraine)
Sources: Russia Matters (ISW data), Reuters, ISW/CTP, OSINT maps, The New York Times, Le Monde