#创作者冲榜 How long will high oil prices last? Is it the smoke of the US-Iran conflict or the dusk of the US dollar and oil?

In the last week of March 2026, everywhere you look on your phone, people are queuing to refuel. Why are everyone lining up to fill up? Will high oil prices continue? Let’s take a look:
1. Why did oil prices start to surge?
Strait of Hormuz: Once the choke point of global energy, about 20% of the world's oil consumption and 25% of liquefied natural gas exports passed through this Gulf country’s strait into the Indian Ocean daily. But with the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in late March, the Strait of Hormuz transformed from one of the busiest shipping lanes into the most dangerous waters globally. The number of merchant ships passing through plummeted by 95%, and cruise ship insurance premiums soared over 300%. Shipowners began to doubt the reliability of this maritime energy route, believing that sending oil tankers through Hormuz could no longer guarantee safe passage. As a result, oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq were disrupted, causing oil prices to climb, with international crude prices breaking above $100 per barrel.
2. When will oil prices fall back?
In fact, it’s not unusual for international oil prices to break into triple digits over the past 20 years. We’ve seen this before before the 2008 financial crisis, during the Arab Spring in 2011, and most recently during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. No matter how high prices go, they tend to fall back eventually.
But this time, the surge in oil prices is somewhat different.
1. Supply-side shock, not demand-driven: Past oil price hikes were usually driven by global economic growth increasing demand. But this time, the surge is caused by supply disruption due to the Hormuz Strait incident (about 20 million barrels of oil per day couldn’t be exported).
2. Global buffer mechanisms are severely weakened: In the past, regional issues in the Middle East could be offset by supplies from other regions. Now, OPEC+’s idle capacity has fallen to historic lows, and strategic petroleum reserves are also at record lows. Without safety nets, markets react more violently to shocks.
3. Geopolitical conflict premiums are no longer short-term factors: Previously, geopolitical conflicts were seen as pulse events—prices spiked during conflicts and fell afterward. But the Hormuz Strait incident involves major power rivalries, nuclear negotiations, regional hegemony, and dollar-pegged oil, indicating that high oil prices may not be a temporary phenomenon but could develop into medium- or long-term trends.
3. Great power rivalry: conflict is just a surface phenomenon
The rise in oil prices isn’t solely due to the military conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. We need to think more deeply: why did the Hormuz Strait become a flashpoint now?
Since the US shale revolution, the US has shifted from being the world’s largest oil importer to a net exporter. The strategic importance of the Middle East has declined on the US balance sheet, while countries like China and India have increased their dependence on Middle Eastern oil. This supply-demand adjustment has prompted Gulf nations to reconsider their strategic positioning. More importantly, US sanctions on Iran have reached a very awkward crossroads. Sanctions haven’t made Iran yield; instead, they have further emboldened Iran and its proxies to challenge the order more aggressively.
During this transitional period—when the old framework is collapsing and a new one has yet to be established—the risk premium keeps high oil prices sustained. Beyond the visible US-Iran conflict, the loosening of the petrodollar system is an invisible undercurrent.
The petrodollar system began in the 1970s, when the US and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement: Saudi Arabia would price its oil exports in dollars and invest the proceeds in US Treasury bonds in exchange for US military protection. This dollar-for-security deal gave the US dollar a special status, making all oil-consuming countries worldwide pay for US consumption. But this foundation is now weakening.
Changes include:
- De-dollarization attempts by oil-producing countries: On March 24, Saudi Aramco completed a crude oil transaction with a Chinese refining company priced in RMB.
- Shifts in supply and demand stance: As the US no longer relies on Middle Eastern oil, it no longer needs to defend the Gulf shipping lanes for energy security. Gulf countries are reassessing whether they still need to trade oil for security.
These changes, combined, suggest that the recent surge in oil prices is not only due to conflict but also presents a historic opportunity for the RMB.
4. The era of low oil prices is over
Three points indicate that the low oil price era has ended:
1. Since the oil price crash in 2014, major oil companies have been sharply reducing investment in exploration. Even if prices rise further, new oil projects take 3-5 years to come online, meaning supply response is slower than ever.
2. Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern unrest—from the Red Sea crisis to Hormuz Strait confrontations—will keep oil premiums high in the short term.
3. The end of the only option of linking oil to the US dollar signals the formation of a multipolar energy currency system. This means losing the stability of the dollar system, with increased volatility due to exchange rate fluctuations, settlement risks, and reserve adjustments, all contributing to greater market volatility.