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This is truly a historic moment:
27 days of Iran war, the market shifts from "rate cuts" to "rate hikes"
A few weeks ago, investors were still debating how many rate cuts the Federal Reserve would implement in 2026.
And now?
📈 The probability of a rate hike by January 2027 has risen to 48%
📈 Baseline scenario: interest rates remain unchanged until September 2027
This is one of the fastest shifts in Fed expectations since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020—and meanwhile, the labor market has actually weakened further.
27 days, everything has changed.
2026 is destined to be a wild year.
#美联储 # Rate hikes #降息 # Iran war #债券市场 # Macroeconomics