$ETH No one can give an exact month, but by arranging the existing variables, a probability framework can be derived.

*Mid-April — The most recent catalyst window**
US CPI data is expected to be released between April 10 and 15. If inflation is below expectations, the rate cut expectations will rise, institutional risk appetite will improve, and ETF funds may start to recover as early as this window. This is currently the closest macro trigger point.
*Late April to May — A high-probability rebound period**
Historically, ETH ETF outflows typically take 2 to 3 weeks to turn positive. If macro signals in mid-April are somewhat positive, combined with the current technically oversold conditions, late April to early May is the most likely window for a technical rebound. Several analysis institutions have target prices concentrated in this period, ranging from $2,200 to $2,300.
**After May — Conditions for a trend reversal become more mature**
To achieve a trend reversal rather than just a rebound, ETF net inflows must continue, BTC stabilize, and on-chain activity increase simultaneously. The probability of all three conditions being met is higher after May than in April.
| Scenario | Trigger Conditions | Expected Rebound Window |
| Optimistic | CPI data dovish + BTC stabilizes first | Mid to late April |
| Baseline | Macro marginal improvement + ETF outflows narrow | End of April to May |
| Pessimistic | Middle East situation worsens + rate cut expectations continue to shrink | Delayed to June or later |
**The earliest is mid-April, most likely late April to May, but only if macro conditions cooperate.** If the Middle East situation or Federal Reserve stance does not improve, the rebound may have to wait until June.