Dow Jones Futures Fall, Oil Prices Rise; Trump Warns Iran To 'Get Serious Before It Is Too Late'

Dow Jones futures fell solidly early Thursday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, as oil prices rose. President Donald Trump warn Iran to “get serious” about a deal. Karman Holdings (KRMN) fell on earnings while memory stocks such as Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) continue to slide.

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The stock market rebounded Wednesday morning on hopes for a Trump peace plan to end the Iran war. Small caps had another strong day while the major indexes came off their best levels, all stuck below their 200-day moving averages. Crude oil futures fell but pared losses significantly. Treasury yields retreated.

Caterpillar (CAT), Curtiss-Wright (CW), Marvell Technology (MRVL), BWX Technologies (BWXT) and Woodward (WWD) all rose Wednesday, around buy points.

The video embedded in the article reviews Wednesday’s market action and analyzes Marvell stock, Woodward and BMX Technologies.

Stock Market Whipsaws On Trump Comments, Oil Prices

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.7% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures lost 0.85% and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 1%.

Crude oil futures jumped more than 4% to above $94 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield rose several basis points to 4.38%.

President Donald Trump warned Iran in a Thursday morning social media post, “They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty!” Trump continued to insist that Iranian officials are “begging” for a deal even as they publicly deny any talks.

The U.S. has been sending more troops to the region, raising the prospect of putting boots on the ground in Iran.

Vice President J.D. Vance could travel to Pakistan over the weekend for Iran war talks, CNN reported.

Iran reportedly is drafting a bill to impose fees for ships to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, something that may already be happening unofficialy.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Karman Earnings

Karman earnings just missed EPS views but  sales slightly beat and the space play guided higher on revenue.

KRMN stock fell modestly before the open. On Wednesday, the space stock briefly rose above a 107.56 cup-with-handle buy point amid the SpaceX IPO buzz, but faded to close down 2.2% to 99.60.

Memory Stocks Slide

Micron fell modestly and Sandisk stock declined solidly before the open, after both lost more than 3% on Wednesday, though closing off lows. Google announced a compression method to significantly reduce AI’s memory needs. That cuts against the thesis that memory demand will far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future.

Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live

Stock Market Rally Attempt

The stock market rally attempt started Wednesday strong, buoyed by overnight reports that the U.S. submitted a peace plan to Iran. But Iran continues to deny any talks and rejected President Trump’s proposals. For now, U.S.-Israeli strikes continue on Iran, which is retaliating with drones and missiles throughout the region.

As crude oil futures came off lows, stocks came off highs, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting resistance at the 200-day line.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.65% in Wednesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index rose 0.5%. The Nasdaq composite gained 0.8%. The small-cap Russell 2000 popped 1.2%, close to session highs and testing its 21-day line.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) climbed 0.5%, modestly off its 200-day line.

Wednesday marked day three of a stock market rally attempt, which will continue as long as the major indexes hold above last Friday’s low. A follow-through day could come as soon as Thursday to confirm the rally attempt, but would likely be viewed with skepticism.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have closed low in their daily ranges for the past four sessions.

Arm Holdings (ARM) spiked 16% Wednesday, vaulting above the 200-day line and running up the right side of a deep base after the U.K. firm unveiled its first in-house AI chip. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) leapt more than 7%, both reclaiming their 50-day lines on reports of CPU price hikes.

Many space stocks jumped on reports that an IPO filing for Elon Musk’s SpaceX could come any day, while Tesla (TSLA) edged higher. Biotechs were strong performers, though not many are in position.

U.S. crude oil prices declined 2.2% to $90.32 a barrel, though well off lows. Brent crude also sank 2.2%, to $102.22, after undercutting $100 intraday. Murban crude futures, based on United Arab Emirates oil, dived 16.4% to $100.26 after topping $160 just a few days ago.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.33%.

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ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 0.5%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) climbed 1.1%. AMD stock, ARM, Micron, Intel and Marvell are all in SMH.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) rose 1.3% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) advanced 0.8%. Tesla stock, the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs, edged up 0.8%.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) popped 1%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) declined 0.4% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) added 1%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) rose 0.7%.

The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) edged up 0.1%.

Best Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch

Stocks To Watch

Caterpillar stock edged up 0.3% to 719.04, continuing the week’s solid move off the 50-day line and above the 21-day line, offering an early entry in an emerging base. The Dow Jones heavy equipment maker is benefiting from the AI boom via construction projects and generator sales.

Marvell stock leapt 6.6% to 98.45, clearing the 95.05 buy point from a handle in a double-bottom base, according to MarketSurge. MRVL stock broke the downtrend of the handle on Tuesday.

Curtiss-Wright stock inched 0.2% higher to 702.25, extending the week’s move off the 50-day line. It’s actionable as CW works on a base.

BWX Technologies stock jumped 8.5% to 222.13, rebounding off the 50-day and breaking out past the 220.57 buy point. The relative strength line, which tracks a stock’s performance vs. the S&P 500, is at a new high.

Woodward stock gained 0.8% to 372.08, bouncing off the 50-day line and just regaining the 21-day, offering an early entry in a flat base. The buy point is 403.31.

What To Do Now

The stock market is in a rally attempt but closing poorly with the major indexes below their 200-day line. And the news-tweet-rumor nature of the market should add to wariness.

On the upside, a fair number of stocks are showing strength. Nimble traders can try a small position here or there, but have to cut losses just as quick.

Generally, investors should be mostly or even entirely in cash. But pay attention to the market and track stocks that are showing promise, so you’re ready for the next true uptrend.

Karman stock is on the Leaderboard watchlist. Curtiss-Wright, Woodward, Karman, BWX Technologies and Marvell stock are on the IBD 50. Micron stock, Sandisk and Woodward are on the IBD Big Cap 20. Caterpillar was Wednesday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson  for stock market updates and more.

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