In the event of black swan shocks like Federal Reserve rate hikes, BTC is unlikely to fall below the initial 40,000 mark.

The third wave of trend decline, which started from the previous rebound high of 76,000, may find its support zone between 55,000 and 60,000.
From a temporal perspective, if it drops to around 40,000, it would indicate that the bear market is progressing too quickly, which does not align with the usual market rhythm.
Therefore, considering all factors, in the absence of extreme negative catalysts, the likelihood of BTC falling below the 40,000 threshold in the first half of this year is relatively low.
The market is more likely to complete its adjustment within this relatively high range.
( If there are no major negative news in the first half of this year )