Market Strategy Tips (March 30 — March 31, Yesterday to Today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (3.30—3.31), the market is in a stage of combined factors: increased Middle East geopolitical risk aversion + a pause in hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve + technical oversold recovery. Gold has strongly V-shaped reversed after hitting bottom, regaining above $4,500 and consolidating; the crypto market, after touching the key support at 66,000, has weakly rebounded, showing a low-volume correction and reduced volatility with a tug-of-war pattern.
Macro News

Core Macro Theme: Risk aversion and interest rate tug-of-war, with hawkish expectations easing temporarily amid ongoing Middle East conflicts (Iran plans to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, U.S.-Iran standoff intensifies). Brent crude oil stabilizes at $112/barrel, but concerns about stagflation remain. However, dovish signals from Fed officials and weaker initial jobless claims data have slightly loosened market pricing of “higher rates for longer”:

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly declined from 4.44% to 4.38%, and the dollar index retreated from 106.8 to 105.9, temporarily easing pressure on gold and risk assets.
CME FedWatch shows: the probability of a rate cut in June has risen to 18%, with the expectation of the first cut after September still mainstream, but short-term rate hike expectations have cooled.
Global risk appetite is recovering from lows, U.S. stocks have halted declines and rebounded, and risk asset selling pressure has eased.

Gold: Bottoming out and V-shaped reversal, driven by risk aversion + technical recovery

Yesterday, spot gold plunged to a low of $4,418–4,420 during the Asian session, then surged strongly, closing above $4,515, with an intraday range of nearly $100, forming a long lower shadow bullish candle on the daily chart.
Main drivers of the rebound:
Technical oversold recovery: After a sharp decline, RSI/KDJ formed a bullish crossover at low levels, and the support zone at $4,400–4,420 triggered substantial buy-in.
Geopolitical risk aversion: Iran tightening Strait control and increasing conflict uncertainty drove funds back into gold as a safe haven.
Central bank gold purchases: Global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, with over 215 tons bought in Q1, forming a rigid bottom support.

Key levels: Support at $4,450–4,480, resistance at $4,550–4,600.
Core resistance remains: Gold ETFs saw nearly $11 billion net outflows in March, and COMEX net longs remain low, constrained by high interest rates in the medium to long term.

Crypto Market: Support at 66,000 touched bottom, weak correction with low volume, institutional battles intensify

Bitcoin yesterday dipped to a low of $65,997 (two-week low), then rebounded to fluctuate in the $67,500–68,000 range, with mainstream coins stabilizing slightly.
Funds and On-chain:
Exchange net outflow of 11,800 BTC (new high in nearly three weeks), with large whale addresses holding thousands of BTC increasing net, and significant whale accumulation observed below 66,000.
BTC ETFs maintain slight net inflows, but pressure from whale entities like the Bhutan sovereign fund persists; the market remains dominated by supply and demand battles.
Fear & Greed Index is at 12 (Extreme Fear), market sentiment remains fragile but selling pressure has eased.

Technical & Pattern:
Daily RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, and MACD bearish momentum has weakened, but the 70,000 level remains a strong resistance, and the medium-term downtrend has not been broken.

Special Reminders

Gold: The current rebound is driven by technical oversold recovery + geopolitical risk aversion, not a trend reversal. The high-interest-rate environment of the Federal Reserve remains unchanged, with strong resistance at $4,550–$4,600. Do not chase highs; recommended to operate within ranges, hold light short-term longs, and strictly set stop-loss at $4,450. If geopolitical sentiment eases and U.S. Treasury yields rise again, beware of a quick pullback.
Crypto Market: 66,000 is a short-term critical level. Although whales are accumulating to support, the rebound volume is low and sentiment fragile. The strong resistance zone is at 68,000–70,000. Strictly control positions (≤30%), and consider partial entries only after volume breaks above 70,000, volatility continues to decline, and on-chain funds flow significantly in.