Fitch Revises Up Commodity Price Forecasts for 2026, Copper and Gold Expected to Strengthen

The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its assumptions for metal and mining commodity prices for 2026.

This upward revision reflects changing global market dynamics, strong global demand projections, and limited supply.

Citing its official report, Fitch Ratings has increased its assumptions for the prices of several key commodities.

For example, for copper (copper), the actual price in 2025 was recorded at US$ 9,939 per ton. The previous projection for 2026 was US$ 9,500, but it has been sharply revised upward to US$ 11,500 per ton in the latest forecast.

In terms of other metals, aluminum had an actual price in 2025 of US$ 2,630 per ton. The previous projection for 2026 was US$ 2,550, now increased to US$ 2,900 per ton.

Zinc (zinc) also saw an upward revision from US$ 2,850 to US$ 3,000 per ton, from the 2025 actual price of US$ 2,867.

On the precious metals side, gold (gold), Fitch recorded an actual price in 2025 of US$ 3,431 per troy ounce. The price projection has been raised amid strong global demand.

This surge is driven by central bank purchases and increased investment allocations from institutional and retail investors amid geopolitical uncertainties. The previous gold price forecast for 2026 of US$ 3,400 has been significantly revised upward to US$ 4,500 per troy ounce.

For coal-based energy commodities, Newcastle thermal coal had an actual price in 2025 of US$ 105 per ton. The 2026 assumption has been revised upward from US$ 95 to US$ 110.

In the battery metals group, nickel recorded an actual price in 2025 of US$ 15,154 per ton. However, Fitch has raised its short-term price assumption for nickel in 2026 to US$ 16,000 per ton.

Additionally, lithium has also been revised upward from US$ 10,000 to US$ 13,500 per ton, compared to the actual price in 2025 of US$ 10,388.

Cobalt has also surged significantly, from the previous assumption of US$ 30,000 to US$ 50,000 per ton, from the actual price of US$ 37,037.