The Non-Farm Payrolls data has been released: 62,000 jobs added. It's lower than the previous figure but higher than expectations—neither hot nor cold.

In front of the tinderbox of the Strait of Hormuz, an employment figure indeed seems a bit "light." But since it’s out, let’s take a look—what if it’s a foreshadowing of some major change down the line?
The 62,000 number is fewer than last month’s, but it didn’t crash. The message it sends is: the job market hasn't been pulled off the cliff by the war for now. This is much better than a cliff dive, at least allowing a sigh of relief.
But we can't say directly that the war has no impact on employment. Oil prices have been rising for nearly three months, and corporate costs are going up. Layoffs tend to lag behind cost pressures; today’s oil price increase doesn’t mean layoffs tomorrow. The transmission chain is long.
So this small Non-Farm Payrolls report is like giving the market a piece of candy—not sweet, but not bitter either.
The real decisive moment will be Friday’s big Non-Farm Payrolls report. We’ll see how the data moves and whether it can blow away that cloud of “stagflation” hanging over the market.
Right now, geopolitics is the main dish, and data is the side dish. But sometimes, side dishes can turn into the main course—who knows?