Wintermute: The accumulated energy in the crypto market has not yet reached a consensus, and the direction will be determined by the trigger point.

ME News update: On March 31 (UTC+8), Wintermute said that the four-week window of easing conditions is about to end, and the issue still shows no signs of resolution. Brent crude is trading above $112, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the probability of rate hikes continues to rise. The macro upper bound for risk assets is lower than a month ago, making it difficult for the Bitcoin price to sustainably hold above $70,000. The March 27 expiration date not only cleared $14 billion in risk exposure, but also eliminated the delta-hedging capital flows that had previously caused spot prices to oscillate around the range of key strike prices. Without this kind of supporting structure from passive buy/sell orders, the market is more prone to one-sided moves as capital flows thin out. Add to that negative ETF inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and although perpetual contract leverage rates are high, in a cycle characterized by low volatility there is no clear direction—this market setup will not gradually evolve, but instead will suddenly break out.

If credible progress is made on the diplomatic front and oil prices fall to around $100, then the shorts will face the risk of being forced to cover, and the Bitcoin price could rebound to the $70,000–$74,000 range. If the easing continues, the $74,000 resistance level may be tested. Conversely, if conditions further escalate and oil is pushed up to $120, the Bitcoin price could fall to just over $60,000; if the cycle behaves similarly, it could even drop into the $50,000–$55,000 range. More importantly, the directional issue here is secondary compared with the market structure itself. Perpetual contract leverage is high, funding rates are moving within the narrowest range on record, and volatility fluctuations are compressing. No matter which direction catalysts push toward, the market structure indicates that the resulting price volatility will far exceed the level currently reflected in the pricing of spot, perpetual futures, and options. (Source: Foresight News)