WTI surged 13% overnight! International oil prices soared to $113, what happened?

On April 2, the global energy market experienced a fierce shock. U.S. WTI crude oil futures jumped 13 overnight, reaching $113 per barrel; Brent crude futures rose 8%, trading at $109 per barrel.

Behind this astonishing increase is the renewed escalation of the US-Iran situation. President Trump stated in a nationwide address during prime time that U.S. forces will carry out "extremely intense" strikes against Iran within the next two to three weeks, and also said that after the conflict ends, the Strait of Hormuz will "naturally reopen," but did not provide specific details or a timeline. Iran responded strongly, claiming the strait is under its "full control," and reiterated that it will continue to blockade as a countermeasure.

Why is oil price so sensitive to the Strait blockade?

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for global oil transportation. If blocked, the crude oil supply gap could reach 7.4 million barrels per day. This is not just a number but a real crisis that directly impacts the global energy supply chain. Analysts point out that as long as the outlook for navigation through the strait remains uncertain, oil prices will have upward momentum. Some industry insiders bluntly said, "Even if a ceasefire happens tomorrow, oil prices won't go back."

Where are April oil prices headed?

The current market expectation for the average price of Brent crude in 2026 has surged to $82.85, up about 30% from before the outbreak of hostilities, marking the largest upward revision recorded in a Reuters survey. Societe Generale even warned that if the supply gap continues to widen, oil prices could spike to $150 per barrel.

In the short term, OPEC+ will hold a meeting on April 5 to discuss May production quotas. Sources say that once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, OPEC+ may quickly increase production to stabilize prices. But until then, supply tensions are unlikely to ease, and oil prices are likely to remain highly volatile.
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Trading Tips

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