Oil prices have steadily and firmly climbed back above 110, and these recent crashes have once again wiped out countless irrational aggressive traders.

If oil prices stay above 120 for a long time, even above 150, the chances of recession and depression this year will be extremely high.

When risks arrive, they are often an extreme tail event—something you might only encounter a few times in your lifetime. Do you think you've experienced this in the market over 5 or 10 years? Sorry, you might not have encountered such a situation even over 5 or 10 years, like negative oil futures prices or prices not being zero.

Now AI is very convenient. Everyone can ask AI a question: analyze the historical relationship between oil price fluctuations and economic recessions. Basically, you'll get a rough idea. Even if the four-year cycle of Bitcoin continues to hold, this year is still likely to be a bear market. Although it has already fallen 50%, I believe in terms of time and space—especially time—it’s not yet a medium- or long-term bottom.