A Crypto Whale Ethereum bet worth US$2.6 billion faces the same trap that previously triggered a 43% crash

Ethereum Price
ETHUSD
trades around US$2,055 on April 3, staying within an upward channel on the 8-hour chart that has guided price action since February 24.

This channel has become the only bullish structure that has held for ETH since the early-February crash. But three behind-the-scenes signals—smart money doubt, bearish RSI divergence, and a whale pattern that has historically failed to prevent corrections—suggest the continued viability of this channel is increasingly in question.

Smart Money Mimics Patterns That Happened Before the 43% Crash

Smart Money Index (SMI), an indicator that tracks the behavior of market-savvy investors, is now moving closely with its signal line on the 8-hour chart. Both lines are pressed together, indicating that market participants who are in the know have not yet made a directional decision. The appearance of a doji candle in the 8-hour timeframe also confirms the same uncertainty at this price level, as buyers and sellers have been unable to dominate the market over the last two sessions.

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This is important because a very similar pattern—almost identical—appeared in early January. Ethereum’s smart money indicator stayed attached to its signal line for several sessions, before finally breaking the tie and dropping after a brief uptick. In that period, Ethereum’s price plunged 43% from the peak of US$3,042 on January 28 to US$1,742 on February 6. Today’s flat conditions also carry the same structural pattern.

Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, also reinforces bearish odds. From February 25 to April 1, the price on the 8-hour chart prints higher highs within the upward channel. However, RSI forms lower highs over the same period. This standard bearish divergence is a signal that price momentum has started to weaken.

Since that divergence has been confirmed, the price of ETH has started to correct. The combination of smart money doubt and fading RSI momentum raises the question of whether whale activity can prop up the price if technical support weakens.

Ethereum Whales Keep Buying, but History Suggests Caution

Santiment’s on-chain data shows that Ethereum whales—wallets that are not exchange addresses—have continued accumulating since March 24. On that date, whale supply was recorded at 121.69 million ETH. By April 3, it had risen to 122.98 million ETH, adding about 1.29 million tokens.

This accumulation has been consistent rather than sudden, and a clear increase is visible after April 3. At current ETH prices, that additional 1.29 million ETH is worth roughly US$2.65 billion. Usually, buy pressure of this magnitude from large wallets supports bullish sentiment.

However, the January precedent casts doubt on that assumption. From January 28 to February 6, when Ethereum fell 43%, whales kept buying. They added positions during the crash—either as long-term accumulation or by getting trapped in a market that kept falling. This current accumulation follows a similar pattern, occurring alongside weakening momentum indicators.

That pattern increases the risk that this accumulation is not a sign of confidence, but a classic trap in which big buyers absorb supply while the overall market structure weakens beneath them.

Whale buying alone did not prevent the February correction, and the presence of smart money doubt alongside RSI divergence suggests that this time may not be enough either. The upward channel and key levels now determine where ETH goes next.

Ethereum Price Targets the Bottom of the Channel

The 8-hour upward channel frames every important price level for Ethereum. ETH is now trading at US$2,055, between the 0.5 Fibonacci level at US$2,093 and the 0.618 level at US$2,024. The US$2,024 zone is the lower boundary of the channel and the most important support area.

A daily close below US$2,024 would weaken the bullish structure that has been formed since February 24. This breakdown aligns with the earlier smart money doubt and RSI divergence. If ETH falls below the channel, the 0.786 Fibonacci level at US$1,925 will be the next target, followed by the US$1,800 level, slightly above the February 6 crash low of US$1,742.

For this bearish scenario to be invalidated, Ethereum needs to reclaim US$2,162—that is the 0.382 Fibonacci level, nearly matching the swing high on April 1, which is part of the RSI divergence. If ETH breaks above that level, it would indicate smart money has already chosen a direction and the weakening of momentum is no longer valid. If ETH can push through US$2,387, bullish opportunities would open up again significantly.

An upward channel after a long decline carries the risk of continued downward-trend follow-through and does not automatically turn into a bullish signal. The channel does form a trend structure, but the signals inside it are starting to weaken. If macroeconomic pressures caused by oil prices continue alongside weakening smart money activity and the Relative Strength Index, then the channel floor at US$2,024 will truly be tested.

A daily close below US$2,024 would indicate a controlled correction toward US$1,925, which could also open the door to the US$1,800 zone. But if price manages to rise back to US$2,162, that will be the first sign that the bullish structure is still holding for now.

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