Geopolitical Pressures Push Return on Investment in March 2026, Gold and Stocks Correct

Global geopolitical turmoil continues to weigh on the performance or returns of nearly all investment instruments in March 2026. Market uncertainty triggered by conflicts in the Middle East and soaring energy prices has made investors more cautious.

Based on Bloomberg data at the end of March 2026, spot gold posted a monthly return of -11.5% (MoM) and decreased by 1.4% since the beginning of the year (YtD). Antam gold also declined 7.16% MoM and weakened 1.1% YtD.

Pressure also affected the stock market. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) fell 14.4% MoM and 15.4% YtD. Meanwhile, corporate and government bonds recorded returns of -1.21% and -2.08% respectively for the month. On the other hand, the USD/IDR exchange rate strengthened with a positive return of 1.5% MoM.

Doo Financial Futures Chief Analyst, Lukman Leong, assesses that the decline in various investment assets occurred after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. This move drove a surge in global crude oil prices and sparked concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.

Lukman explained that the weakening of gold is a normal correction after a long rally since the beginning of the year.

“I think the decline in gold is reasonable following a fairly long rally and a fantastic increase at the start of 2026,” Lukman told Kontan on Thursday (2/4/2026).

Conversely, the rise in cryptocurrencies is seen more as a technical rebound after experiencing pressure in previous months.

“Cryptos like BTC, for example, have had a major correction since October, and the rebound in March is not very significant,” he added.

As of the end of March 2026, crypto performance has begun to show signs of recovery. Bitcoin posted a return of 4.3% MoM, though still down 16.34% YtD. Ethereum even gained 10.2% MoM, but remains corrected by 16.9% YtD.

According to Lukman, both gold and crypto are equally pressured by the strengthening US dollar driven by expectations of interest rate hikes. However, fundamentally, they have different directions.

“Gold is still supported by physical demand from central banks, whereas BTC tends to be uncertain and speculative. So, their fundamental directions are actually different,” Lukman explained.

Despite the correction, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. The current price weakness can be an opportunity for investors to accumulate, especially as a hedge against global uncertainties.

However, investors still need to watch out for risks related to high interest rates and the uncertain duration of geopolitical conflicts. As long as tensions persist, gold price movements are expected to remain limited.

For 2026, Lukman estimates that spot gold prices will range between US$5,700 and US$6,000 per troy ounce, with potential gains of around 20%–30%. Alongside this, Antam gold prices are projected to be in the range of Rp 3.4 million to Rp 3.7 million per gram.

Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty

In the face of a dynamic global environment, Lukman emphasizes the importance of cross-asset diversification strategies. Investors are advised to maintain a balance between defensive assets and growth assets to minimize risks.

Instruments worth considering include gold as a hedge, as well as silver, which is supported by demand from the renewable energy sector. Additionally, blue-chip stocks in the energy, commodities, and fundamentally strong sectors are also attractive for accumulation.

Meanwhile, bonds—especially US Treasuries—are expected to potentially strengthen significantly if geopolitical conflicts ease. “Prices will rise sharply once the war ends,” he said.

In conclusion, Lukman stresses that investment strategies in 2026 should be flexible and adaptive to the ever-changing global dynamics, especially amid geopolitical pressures and global monetary policies.