#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Multiple signs indicate that the Middle East conflict may be nearing an end, but even a ceasefire is unlikely to immediately eliminate risk premiums.

As the US, Israel, and Iran conflict enters its fifth week, investors are trying to predict the next move. The key question is: will the market continue to be influenced by the Middle East situation, or will it shift focus back to the real economy and artificial intelligence as risk aversion gradually eases?
Based on the latest news flow, the former still seems to dominate. Unsurprisingly, U.S. President Trump has not provided a clear roadmap to end the conflict in recent speeches, and his remarks remain inconsistent. Although he again mentioned a timeline of two to three weeks, investors are not taking his words at face value.
That said, Trump is almost solely concerned with stock market performance and the strong momentum of the U.S. economy ahead of the midterm elections in November. Therefore, when the stock market declines or U.S. economic data underperform expectations, his statements tend to become more moderate. Clearly, he has noticed that recent polls show most respondents are deeply concerned about gasoline prices.
Meanwhile, within the Israeli government, a few voices are advocating for a ceasefire. Some senior military officials emphasize that the Israeli military is under pressure on multiple fronts, and since Israeli cities are more vulnerable than expected, public support for the current war against Iran is declining.
Therefore, the view that the conflict may be nearing its end is not without basis. However, before a ceasefire is expected, both sides’ bombing campaigns may intensify. Interestingly, U.S. statements regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are inconsistent. Trump urges NATO allies to pass through the strait to transport oil or purchase U.S. crude oil, while Vice President Vance hints that he is willing to support a ceasefire if U.S. demands (including reopening the strait) are met.
Although a ceasefire agreement could halt the fighting, normalizing oil supplies may take several weeks or more. It is foreseeable that the risk premium embedded in oil prices will persist, and oil prices will seek a new equilibrium at levels higher than the previous $60-$65 range but below current highs.
Meanwhile, several governments have announced fiscal measures to cope with soaring energy costs, which has kept central banks wary of a short-term surge in inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already raised interest rates, and markets are digesting expectations of rate hikes from other major central banks. These factors have jointly pushed up sovereign bond yields and heightened concerns about consumer spending. A new round of U.S. Treasury auctions will be held next week, with the Thursday 30-year bond issuance being the most critical, as long-term yields are currently hovering around 5%.
(The above content is based on Achilleas Georgolopoulos’s views from April 3 and is for reference only; it does not constitute any investment advice.)