#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4 Gold declines make some happy and others sad! What is the outlook for gold next week?

What recent news has influenced the movements of gold and crude oil? How should we assess the bullish or bearish prospects for gold in the near future?

Due to most markets being closed on Friday (April 3rd) for Easter, the true market reaction to the non-farm payroll data may not fully materialize until Monday. This gives investors a longer weekend to digest how the employment data might impact Federal Reserve policies and the potential effects on key assets like gold. As March non-farm employment data is released, the market is at a critical juncture. The Federal Reserve is reassessing its dual mandate. By early 2026, policymakers are focusing on cooling the labor market, but after the U.S.-Iran conflict led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in energy prices, the Fed has shifted attention back to inflation. As energy costs potentially become embedded at higher levels in the economy, traders are closely watching changes in rate probability ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes release. The March non-farm employment data will be released against the backdrop of the Fed’s dual mandate facing a severe test. While employment growth expectations are moderate, persistent high energy prices have significantly altered the Fed’s policy priorities. Currently, the gold market is in a technical consolidation phase. The strength or weakness of the non-farm data will directly influence market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate path, leading to sharp fluctuations in gold prices.

As the Fed’s interpretation of employment data is rapidly evolving, Fed Chair Powell has hinted that the near-zero net employment growth in the private sector may be the balanced state the economy currently needs. Impacted by Middle East energy shocks, the Fed is compelled to prioritize its inflation mandate to prevent demand destruction and potential recession. Policymakers are divided between maintaining stable policies and further easing, making next week’s FOMC meeting minutes and this Friday’s non-farm data crucial for determining whether the Fed will tighten or loosen policy. The March non-farm employment data will be released amid the Fed’s dual mandate facing a severe test. While employment growth expectations are moderate, persistent high energy prices have significantly changed the Fed’s policy priorities. Currently, the gold market is in a technical consolidation phase. The strength or weakness of the non-farm data will directly influence market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate path, causing significant volatility in gold prices. Investors should closely monitor market reactions after employment data releases and the latest assessments from Fed officials in the upcoming FOMC minutes to seize investment opportunities and manage risks. In early April, the gold market is caught in a complex game of geopolitical conflicts, inflation expectations, a strengthening dollar, and interest rate paths. In the short term, gold prices still face downward pressure. We should be alert to sudden developments in Middle East situations over the weekend and the upcoming U.S. March non-farm employment data—these will further guide market judgments on the economy and monetary policy. On Friday, Good Friday, many international markets are closed, and overseas trading will pause, but weekend geopolitical risks are worth high attention.

Analysis of gold price trends for next Monday:

Technical analysis of gold: Friday was closed due to Good Friday, but the non-farm data will be released as usual on Friday night. Additionally, the market over the weekend may further reveal ongoing impacts from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which could significantly influence Monday’s opening. This increases the likelihood of the market moving in a single direction at the open, though whether it will sharply decline again depends on market news.

For now, we can temporarily ignore technical factors and focus mainly on the news-driven stimuli from the non-farm data and U.S.-Iran conflict!

The non-farm payroll data was already bearish on Friday. If over the weekend the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates further with new statements from Trump, then Monday’s opening will likely see a sharp drop in gold prices. The immediate support levels are at 4550-4480; if these are broken, the next support zones are around 4430-4350, the previous rally points. The four-hour Bollinger bands are tightening within an effective range of 4800/4500. In the short term, it’s difficult to break out of this range, so the market is unlikely to trend unilaterally. Therefore, next week, with limited market volatility, focus on the gains and losses within this range. After a rebound and correction, gold is still in a short-term correction phase. A single statement from Trump could trigger a market move. If new news, non-farm data, or a shift in Fed policy is announced next week, breaking above 4800 could target 5000, while falling below 4500 could target 4350. Further detailed analysis will be made at that time.