BlockBeats News, April 4: A CryptoQuant analysis report shows that current sentiment in the cryptocurrency market and capital flows are not aligned: the fear and greed index is in extreme fear(8–14), yet net ETF inflows in March exceeded $1 billion; the exchange premium index remains negative, reflecting limited participation from American institutions. Geopolitical instability(conflict with Iran) causes price fluctuations, market participants are adopting a wait-and-see strategy, overall demand is slowly decreasing, but there are no mass sell-offs.

Despite a decline of approximately 47% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000—much less than the over 85% crashes in 2013 and 2017—analyst Zack Wainwright noted that this indicates the gradual maturation of the Bitcoin market and reduced volatility.

Possible catalysts include: Morgan Stanley's approval of a low-fee Bitcoin ETF, providing access to $6.2 trillion in assets managed by 16,000 financial advisors; as well as ongoing purchases of 44,000 BTC per month by the Strategy STRC preferred stock product, which could provide stable demand pressure in the market. Short-term technical indicators suggest that if the conflict with Iran eases, Bitcoin could rebound to the $71,500–$81,200 range.

Based on relevant CryptoQuant indicators, the conclusion is: internal demand in the Bitcoin market is decreasing, current price support depends on institutional ETFs, Strategy, and new channels that continue to absorb selling pressure from retail and large long-term holders.