Based on their latest on-chain movement, BTC is dangerously leaning toward a majority loss

The on-chain metric (on the blockchain) of “supply in profit and in loss” (profit and loss supply) represents, on one hand, the amount of bitcoins whose last on-chain movement (last transfer recorded between addresses) has a price below the current market price (theoretical profit). On the other hand, the “supply in loss” corresponds to bitcoins whose last on-chain price is higher than the current rate (theoretical loss).

Of course, these metrics do not necessarily reflect an investor’s initial purchase price (who may have simply transferred between their wallets, not sold). But they give a good idea of the theoretical gains/losses relative to the last recorded movement on the blockchain.

And as we will see, the distribution between profit and loss on the Bitcoin network is close to tipping the scales in the wrong direction, confirming a bear market situation (market downturn) for the king of cryptocurrencies.
41% of Bitcoin’s supply is theoretically in loss (referring to on-chain movements)
Since Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) of $126,000 in October 2025, BTC’s price has dropped about 47% as of today, April 3, 2026. According to an analysis by Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, this places 8.2 million BTC, or 41% of the circulating Bitcoin supply, in theoretical loss since their last on-chain movements.

Conversely, about 11.2 million BTC remain in a state of theoretical profit, or 56% of the circulating supply. The remaining few percent (3 %) are nearly at equilibrium relative to the current price range (fluctuating around $66,000–$67,000).

“The level of supply in profit and loss now reaches levels typical of a true bear market.
Currently, about 11.2 million BTC remain in profit [theoretical] (…) This figure is not far from the lowest profit level recorded during the previous bear market [2022], which was 9 million BTC.
On the other hand, approximately 8.2 million BTC are now in loss [theoretical].
This is quite significant, considering that during the last bear market, this number reached about 10.6 million BTC. (…)
The analyst concludes that the market has “reached a notable level of undervaluation, comparable to conditions observed during the previous bear market.” Many analysts and market observers also believe we are close to the market bottom, or that it has already passed. The RSI indicator on BTC prices also leans toward the formation of a bottom. #GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge $BTC