$BTC bear market has a good recognizable pattern

Every cycle the drawdowns get slightly less brutal as the market matures
2011: -92%
2015: -85%
2018: -83%
2022: -76%
Now look at what’s changed this time. You’ve got spot ETF flows absorbing supply every single day, corporate treasuries stepping in with size and @saylor still buying aggressively. Add to that the reduced sell pressure after the halving and a much stronger base of longterm holders than any previous cycle… this simply isn’t the same market structure anymore.
If that historical trend continues, a 60–65% drawdown looks like a realistic worst case scenario this cycle. From a $126K ATH, that puts $BTC roughly in the $50K to $44K range.
That’s your real range. Not $80K hopium, not $20K doom. Just structure, liquidity, and math. And if price gets into that zone, it’s likely to get bought aggressively.
The only question is whether you’ll have the conviction to buy when everyone else is calling for lower.