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‍#三月非农数据来袭

The impact of non-farm payrolls on the market may extend into next week

The U.S. March non-farm employment report performed strongly, providing key guidance for the market. Data shows that non-farm employment increased by 178,000, far exceeding market expectations of 60,000 to 65,000, and the unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, after the data was released, apart from the brief surge in the U.S. Dollar Index, the cryptocurrency market remained calm. This may be because, with the weekend overlapping the U.S. Easter holiday, market liquidity was lower, and the data’s impact on the market may be reflected next week.

Decoding the data in depth

After taking a deeper look at the non-farm data, we find the following points worth paying attention to: First, although non-farm employment saw a significant increase, 76% of that growth came from people returning to the healthcare industry (of which 35,000 were returning after a strike ended). Second, while the unemployment rate has declined, this is because the labor force participation rate fell to 61.9% (the lowest since 2021). This means the direct reason unemployment is falling is a contraction in labor supply rather than an expansion in demand. So, overall, the March non-farm data coming in above expectations may be a “technical rebound” rather than a signal of economic recovery. To assert that the U.S. economy is still strong or growing rapidly may be somewhat off the mark. This also explains why the market reaction wasn’t strong after the data release, and why recent statements by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have continued to be “dovish.” Under the pressure of inflation caused by high oil prices, the U.S. economy still faces the risk of falling into “stagflation.”

Bearish for the coin market—effects may be seen next week

Although the “gold content” of this non-farm data beating expectations isn’t very high, it is still bearish for cryptocurrencies and gold and silver. The main reason is that the apparent resilience of the economy reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. In the face of high inflation driven by high oil prices, there are even voices calling for another rate hike. It is reported that after the data was released, the probability that the rate would be maintained at 3.5%-3.75% in December 2026 rose to 77.6% (from 76.3%), and the probability of raising rates to 3.75%-4% within the year jumped from 0.2% to 10.1%. The Fed’s policy has also shifted from “seeing temporary inflation through” to “being alert to oil-price transmission into core inflation.”

However, we find that after the data release, the crypto market seems not to be “afraid.” Bitcoin is only down slightly by 0.6% and rebounded on Sunday. I think this is because the U.S. is in the Easter holiday and the data was released on Friday evening; the impact may show up in the market early next week. Specifically:

For cryptocurrencies, it is bearish. At present, the price of Bitcoin is 67,100. Next, watch whether the price rebounds to around 68,500; if it reaches that level, it could be a good point to open a short. Key support levels below are at the 65,000 and 60,000 round-number levels.

For the gold and silver market, it is also bearish. Early next week, watch whether the decline in the gold and silver market continues. The pressure level for the trend is around 4,800, and the key support level to watch is around 4,500.

What do you think about the March non-farm data? Are you as bearish as Xiao Caishen? Leave a comment and let’s chat!