Wall Street Informant

Right now, it’s more important to monitor not the news, but whether everything has gone out of control.

As soon as the global markets closed for the weekend, hostilities intensified — shifting from “probing” to “borderline uncontrollability,” and directly striking the global energy system.

- Iran shot down an American F-15E fighter jet, another A-10 attack aircraft crashed. The losses in actual combat shattered the myth of American military invincibility in the Middle East, which will significantly encourage Iran and its partners to act more aggressively using “asymmetric strikes.”

- Simultaneously, an oil refinery in Kuwait, gas facilities in the UAE, and seawater desalination plants were attacked. The targets of the conflict have fully shifted from “military confrontation” to “energy strangulation.”

This is no longer a “border conflict,” but a direct blow to energy and American assets — an event that marks a dividing line between eras.

First, the entire world is preparing for an uncontrollable rise in oil prices. Oil prices have already exceeded $110, and if there are no de-escalation news, global markets may be reassessed when trading opens next week.

Second, on Monday, (April 6), the so-called “last deadline” for Trump arrives, though it’s still uncertain whether it will have any force. Trump has tried to use “maximum pressure” to gain favorable negotiation terms, repeatedly claiming that “talks are going well” — effectively leaving himself an option to back down. But Iran is currently employing a “strikes for negotiations” tactic or even outright refusal to negotiate. If no action is taken by April 6, his reputation as a deterrent force will be shattered; if he decides to launch large-scale airstrikes on energy facilities in Iran, oil prices will spike instantly — it will be a long day (UTC+8).

Third, markets are entering a “nonlinear phase”: instead of gradual rises or falls, there will be sudden jumps, sharp fluctuations, and decreased liquidity. Many markets are likely to experience significant gaps, leading to mass liquidation of margin positions without risk hedging options.

Next week’s trading opening will not be “ordinary volatility,” because over the weekend, a lot of information has accumulated (reached a critical point), and it’s another long weekend. The market now resembles a dark room filled with gunpowder, and all the events over the weekend have already lit the match.