#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

The shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has reached a “post-war new high,” but this is more of a marginal recovery relative to the previously “almost zero” blockade, and it has not yet returned to pre-war normal levels. The 13 ships that transited in the past 24 hours (April 4 to 5) indicate that Iran is allowing limited passage through a “graded access” mechanism.

📊 Core Data: Rebound from Low Levels

Daily Transits: In the past approximately 24 hours, 13 ships successfully transited (10 outbound, 3 inbound), mainly liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers and bulk carriers.

Weekly Comparison: The average daily shipping volume over the past week has reached the highest level since the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, but the total volume remains only a “trickle” compared to pre-war normal flow (pre-war daily average of about 60-80 ships).

Key Signal: The first passage of a French container ship (CMA CGM Kribi) and a Japan-related LPG vessel since the conflict began indicates that Iran has started allowing some Western ships to pass.

🧭 Transit Mechanism: Iran-led “New Rules”

Current passage is not a return to free navigation but based on Iran’s unilateral control of a “fee + graded” system:

Route Control: All permitted ships are forced to follow the “northern route” close to the Iranian coast (between Larak Island and Qeshm Island), under strict military surveillance.

Graded Fees: Iran has established a “pass” mechanism, grading ships based on the friendliness of their home countries (e.g., Iraq, Pakistan, India are exempted) and the shipowner’s background, charging high fees accordingly.

Diplomatic Play: The passage of ships from France, Japan, and other countries is likely the result of behind-the-scenes diplomatic negotiations or payments of “toll fees,” rather than a complete military blockade lift.

⚠️ Risk Warning: Do Not Overinterpret as “Unblocking”

Flow Trap: Although the daily flow of 13 ships is a new post-war high, it still falls short of global energy trade demand (especially since LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE remain hindered), leaving a significant supply gap.

Policy Fluctuations: Iran explicitly excludes “hostile countries” (such as Israel and parts of the Western camp) from exemption lists, and the U.S. continues to pressure with a “48-hour final ultimatum,” so the situation could deteriorate again at any time.

Market Impact: While shipping volume has slightly increased, the International Energy Agency (IEA) still warns that April’s crude oil supply losses could double, and risks related to oil prices and shipping insurance remain high.

Conclusion: This is a “limited easing” signal, demonstrating that diplomatic channels are working, but control of the Strait of Hormuz has shifted from an “international waterway” to a “fee-charging checkpoint under Iranian jurisdiction,” and there is still a long way to go before true safe navigation is achieved.