Today (April 6), the global commodities market saw a rare “gold-oil divergence”: precious metals fell under pressure due to currency-related factors, while crude oil surged sharply due to geopolitical factors. The breakdown is as follows:

Market Performance Snapshot

Precious metals weaken: Spot gold fell by about 0.97%~1.5% intraday, losing the $4,610 per ounce level and hitting a low of $4,605; spot silver dropped even more, by over 3%.

Oil divergence strengthens: WTI crude oil (U.S. oil) surged nearly 3% against the trend, rising above $114 per barrel; Brent crude oil also moved higher in tandem. The “divergence” you mentioned may refer to U.S. oil leading the gains or diverging from gold’s performance.

Why “Gold falls, Oil rises”?

Behind this are two different pricing logics for two asset classes reacting to the same news:

Main reason for gold’s decline: Rate-hike expectations resurface

Data pressure: The U.S. March non-farm payroll data released last Friday came far above expectations, leading the market to worry that the Federal Reserve may be unable to cut rates and might even restart rate hikes.

Dollar strength: The U.S. Dollar Index holds above 100, and U.S. Treasury yields rise, directly suppressing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Safe-haven falters: Although the Middle East situation is tense, the market is more concerned about the chain reaction of “high oil prices boosting inflation → a more hawkish Fed,” causing gold’s safe-haven attribute to temporarily lose effectiveness.

Main reason for oil’s rise: Hormuz Strait crisis

Geopolitical flashpoint: Trump issued a “final warning” to Iran, threatening to launch strikes if the Hormuz Strait is not reopened before April 7 (tomorrow). The strait accounts for 20% of global oil transportation, and the blockade risk directly pushes up the war premium.

Supply panic: The market is worried about Iran’s retaliatory supply cutoffs, combined with OPEC+ continuing production cuts, leaving the supply side extremely tight.

What to watch next?

Gold: In the short term, the technical picture is bearish. If it breaks below the $4,600 psychological level, it may probe further lower. The key is whether this week’s CPI inflation data confirms the risk of “stagflation.”

Crude oil: Completely driven by geopolitics, with very high volatility. If tomorrow’s U.S.-Iran negotiations break down, oil prices could surge instantly; if signals of easing appear, gains could be quickly unwound.

Risk warning: The current market is in an extreme “news-driven” sentiment state. The risk of betting one direction is very high—please strictly control your position. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战