When a single voice can turn the entire market

The night promises to be hot. Today at 00:20 Kyiv time, an event will occur that could either save your portfolio or send it into a dip. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will speak before the National Association of Business Economists with a speech on the outlook for monetary policy. It may seem like a boring title, but for crypto, it’s like the finale of a favorite series.

Why is everyone so tense? Because the market is not just falling — it’s falling for specific reasons. Analysts point to three main issues: traders have taken on reckless leverage, long positions are concentrated in a few hands, and structural imbalances have been building up for weeks. It’s like a tower of blocks — one awkward push, and everything collapses. Everyone is waiting for Powell’s speech today because his words will determine whether we rebuild portfolios or just count losses.

What does the market expect from the speech? Three key questions. First: when will rates be cut? The market has already priced in expectations — 97% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, 89% for another cut in December. If Powell confirms these expectations, crypto will soar. Low rates mean cheap money, and investors will rush into risky assets. BTC is currently trading around 69.58K, and it might break higher. Second question: is inflation under control or are they still fighting it? Third: how does he assess the risks of trade wars?

Scenario number one — bullish. Powell speaks softly: inflation is decreasing, the economy is stable, rates will be lowered gradually. Then BTC will fly to 115-118K, ETH will break above 4200, BNB will recover to 1300. Everyone in crypto chats will be geniuses.

Scenario number two — neutral. Vague phrases, no specifics. The market will get stuck in a sideways range, BTC between 110-115K, traders will argue about who’s right, and you’ll open the app in a week and see almost the same thing.

Scenario number three — bearish. Powell is firm: inflation is high, tariffs are problematic, rate cuts will be very cautious. BTC will dip to 108-110K, altcoins will fall 5-10%, panic will start in chats. The smart money will buy on dips, others will panic.

What should you do now? If you’re a long-term investor, relax. Powell’s speech is short-term noise. If you believed in crypto yesterday, believe in it today. If you’re a trader, reduce leverage or close positions before the speech. After 00:20, volatility will spike — you can make money or lose everything. If you hold altcoins, be prepared for swings. Altcoins always react more strongly to Fed news.

The plan for today is simple: at 00:20 UTC+8, Powell’s speech is the X event, then watch the market reaction for two hours, and in the morning check whether you’re richer or poorer.

One person will speak, millions will listen and tremble. It’s like Game of Thrones, but with real money. Remember: markets move in waves, that’s normal. Powell is not an enemy; he’s just doing his job. And the main rule: if you’re nervous, you’re risking too much. Invest only what you’re willing to lose.

I’ll be watching with popcorn and closed positions. I recommend you do the same.