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I'm quite surprised. The article published by U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen in The Wall Street Journal shows that she is urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act immediately and has elevated the bill to a national priority.
This should be another strong push at a critical window in the recent negotiations over stablecoin yield rules.
However, the Treasury Secretary personally stepping in and making a public statement during a sensitive period of the U.S.-Iran war indicates that he is truly anxious.
Currently, @Polymarket is pricing the probability of the bill passing at 59%, which sounds quite promising.
But the time window is actually very tight.
Galaxy Research analysts say there are only 18 working weeks left until the mid-term recess, and each week of delay compresses the feasibility further.
According to standard U.S. legislative procedures, the Banking Committee must complete markup by the end of April; otherwise, the subsequent schedule will collapse (the main concern being the mid-term elections).
Therefore, April will be a critical point for whether the CLARITY Act can be passed within this year.
Once the bill passes, the CFTC will gain jurisdiction over mainstream tokens as commodities, and the final gate for institutional compliance to enter the market will truly open.