Many people see Iran's statements and immediately think that oil prices and gold will skyrocket. I'll just give the conclusion: this wave of sentiment is too exaggerated, and crude oil and gold fundamentally do not have the basis for a sustained rally. Chasing long positions is just inviting a knife.

First, look at those two core statements from Iran: no war, no abandonment of rights. Basically, it's more talk than action.
Saying no war clearly means they don't dare to truly fight, don't dare to completely block the Strait of Hormuz. If they really block the strait, the U.S. would intervene directly, and Iran wouldn't be able to withstand it. The so-called non-abandonment of rights and control at a new stage are more about posture and drawing red lines, aiming to pressure the U.S. and raise oil prices to negotiate better terms, not about launching a full-scale conflict.
The so-called "soft blockade, public control" sounds intimidating, but in reality, it's manageable tension—neither daring to escalate into war nor truly cut off global oil transportation. Such geopolitical frictions have occurred many times in history; each time, prices spike then fall back, and none have kept oil prices high for long.
Looking at the market:
Currently, the rise in crude oil and gold is driven entirely by risk aversion, not real supply and demand.
The global economy has not recovered strongly; crude oil demand can't support a large increase. Gold is even more driven by sentiment—once the situation eases slightly, capital moves faster than anyone.
Iran's goal has never been war, but to gain the maximum benefit at the lowest cost. Once this wave of sentiment subsides, the so-called "volatile upward movement" will turn into a sharp rise followed by a fall. The more aggressive the previous rally, the more severe the correction afterward.
Don't believe in "bottoms are locked in, buy on pullbacks." The current levels are already high, and sentiment is severely overstretched.
From a rational perspective: in the short term, crude oil and gold are in a bull trap. The likelihood of volatility weakening is high, and blindly going long will only get you trapped at high levels.
#霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭 #伊朗拟征收霍尔木兹加密货币通行费