The market has just experienced a dramatic shift in the interest rate narrative. A few weeks ago, everyone was still talking about how much rate cuts would happen in 2026, but now the situation has completely reversed. Traders are now starting to consider the possibility of interest rate hikes in April.

What has shifted this sentiment? Several factors at once. First, the US economy is not slowing down as expected—inflation remains stubbornly above the central bank’s 2% target. Second, oil prices have risen 50% over the past three weeks since the Iran conflict intensified. Third, February inflation data showed headline at 2.4% and core at 2.5%, even before the oil spike occurred.

The result? Global bond markets are experiencing a massive sell-off. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.38% last week, up from below 4% in early March. In the UK, the 10-year gilt yield even surged above 5% for the first time since 2008—up 15% in a month. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed tightening policy in April has increased to 12%, whereas just a week ago it was 0%.

Meanwhile, traditional assets are starting to show pressure. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% today and is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly decline—down more than 5% since late February. The Nasdaq also dropped 1.2% at week’s end. Interestingly, precious metals that previously surged ahead of the war are now falling. Gold declined from $5,500 per ounce to $4,569, while silver plummeted from $95 to $69.50 per ounce.

But Bitcoin? This is the interesting part. Bitcoin remains one of the best-performing assets since the war began, now trading around $73.35k. As Andre Dragosch from Bitwise said, Bitcoin once again acts as an early indicator at the macro level. While many traditional assets are still not fully pricing in a recession scenario, Bitcoin has already factored in that possibility.

Oh, and there’s another interesting detail. SpaceX reportedly holds 8,285 bitcoins valued at around $603 million in Coinbase Prime custody. This is quite significant considering the company reported nearly $5 billion in losses for 2025, whereas the previous year they were profitable $8 billion. Revenue for 2025 indeed increased to $18.5 billion, but Elon Musk’s xAI integration costs turned out to be very high.