I’ve noticed that Bitcoin has been stuck in the same price range for weeks now. Since last November, BTC has been moving back and forth between $80k-$95k, and we’ve already entered day 50 within this 20% price range. The same pattern happened before, from late February to April last year, and it lasted about 52 days before it finally moved up above $126k in October. So there’s a possibility that we’re in the same phase again right now.

On-chain data is also starting to show interesting signals. The choppiness metric from Checkonchain has risen to level 53, which means price action is becoming more random and directionless. Historically, conditions like this usually come before a sharp price surge. So the market might be getting ready for a breakout after this boring period.

From a macro perspective, there are several factors that could drive momentum. The Fed is still expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year, and Trump has just announced the purchase of mortgage securities up to $200 billion. According to Mohamed El-Erian, this could mean political pressure for more aggressive asset purchasing. The combination of continued liquidity along with this long-running consolidation pattern suggests that Bitcoin’s price range may soon break upward.

If history repeats itself, we could see upward movement similar to what happened last April. But of course, we still need to monitor this price range carefully, because it’s still a wait-and-see phase before the next move. BTC is currently at $71.7k, so there’s room to play within the existing range before a potential breakout happens.