4 hours today figuring out Polymarket's Hormuz market resolves on a public IMF REST API nobody's querying. MA7 right now: 8.4. Threshold: 60. Whole trade is two integers.

Will Hormuz traffic return to "normal" by May 31?
My read: 10% | Market: 38.5% | Edge: +28.5pp NO
Insurance frozen, Lloyd's JWC unmoved, OFAC blocks any Western charterer from paying IRGC tolls. Smart money already faded YES from 64.5% → 38.5% in one session. Math still mispriced.
Entry: NO @ 61¢ × 500 + NO @ 87¢ × 500 (Apr 30 sister)
Risked $740 / max $1,000
Wrong if: Lloyd's removes Hormuz from war risk OR US Navy escorts tankers before May 24.
All calls tracked publicly.