April 14, 2026 Early Morning Review Diary

This is Zhang's trading journal channel!
--- BTC Review ---
First, let's talk about Bitcoin. Today BTC closed at 72,446.5, up 2.1% over 24 hours, with the intraday low reaching 70,509.7 and the high touching 72,595.5.
Let's get straight to the point. From an SMC perspective, first identify the structure. Recently, BTC experienced a very clear liquidity sweep around 66,000, wiping out a bunch of retail stop-loss orders, then formed a meaningful Order Block (institutional order cluster) around 70k-70,500. This level isn't random; it's the starting point of last week's volume-spiking sharp drop and quick recovery, where the true intent of the institutions is hidden.
Subsequently, the price began a structural shift. On the 4-hour chart, the MA7, MA30, and MA120 are arranged in a bullish order, and the ADX reading of 30.9 indicates a solid upward trend. The SAR indicator is also steadily supporting below the candles, meaning the trailing stop for the bulls suggests the trend hasn't broken and has some backing.
But one thing makes me cautious: on the 15-minute chart, MACD shows a bearish divergence—price made a new high, but the MACD histogram shrank. RSI has also moved above 70, and WR and CCI are in overbought zones. These short-term signals indicate the bullish momentum is waning; at least in the short term, chasing the rally isn't advisable.
On the fundamental side: Strategy has already bought 24,675 BTC, with a total holding of 767k BTC, and continues to buy. Morgan Stanley's spot ETF MSBT launched and traded $34 million on its first day, with big traditional money still flowing in. These are institutional-level funds confirming confidence, not retail sentiment driving the market, making the structure more stable.
In terms of sentiment: 64% of posts are bullish, only 26% negative. The overall mood is bullish but not euphoric. The Fear & Greed Index is low at 12, indicating the market sentiment hasn't heated up yet, which is actually a good sign.
SMC trading idea: In my view, above 72,600 is an uncleaned liquidity pool. If the price consolidates sideways without breaking below 70,500, and completes a 4H retest, then the area near the Order Block (70,500-71,000) is where I plan to enter long. Place stops below the OB at 70,000 or lower. The initial targets are 73,200-74,000, where unfilled Fair Value Gaps (FVG) are present. Chasing the rally now carries higher short-term risk than reward.
--- ETH Review ---
ETH today closed at 2,235.25, up 1.94%, with the intraday low at 2,175 and high at 2,243.04. The gain is 0.15 percentage points less than BTC, indicating ETH underperformed relative to BTC, which is worth noting.
On the 4-hour SMC structure, ETH's Order Block is clearer. It was tested twice around 2,175 and held both times—an important support for the bulls and also a sign of institutional positioning at this level. The 4H SAR is at 2,175, below recent averages, maintaining the bullish trend.
More interestingly, on the daily chart, RSI and MACD show bullish divergences—price made a new low around 2,175, but RSI and MACD's DIF did not make new lows simultaneously, indicating diminishing downside momentum. The downward force is waning, a significant reversal signal. While it doesn't mean an immediate rally, it suggests limited downside space.
On the news front, several things to watch: Bitmine increased holdings by over 70,000 ETH, now nearly 4% of circulating supply; Blackstone has been buying ETH via ETFs last week, with a single-day purchase up to $61.8 million. This confirms institutional funds are entering.
On the other hand, the Ethereum Foundation sold 5,000 ETH for stablecoins, causing a big market reaction and widespread criticism on social media. Also, the SPAC merger between Ether Machine and Dynamix was called off, which is a potential negative signal. Sentiment shows only a 7 percentage point difference between positive and negative, nearly split down the middle, indicating market disagreement on ETH is much greater than on BTC.
SMC trading idea: Based on ETH's premium/discount analysis, 2,175 is a strong support Order Block—my only serious long entry zone. If the price doesn't retest, entering aggressively in the 2,235-2,250 range isn't worth the risk-reward ratio, as the liquidity above at 2,315-2,330 is less than 4%, making it less attractive. Better to wait for a retest of the 2,175-2,200 OB zone, which is more rational. Place stops below 2,160, target 2,320. If it falls below 2,160, the SMC structure is broken, and a full reassessment is needed.
Conclusion
The hardest part of this job isn't predicting the direction but resisting the urge to enter at the wrong place when the direction is correct. Until the structure is confirmed, all actions are guesses. Waiting itself is a form of trading.
The above analysis is based solely on my personal review within the SMC framework and does not constitute any investment advice. Please judge and manage trading risks yourself. #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #比特币 #以太坊 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌