Don't be fooled by the short-term rebound! Bitcoin remains undecided, and I choose a long-term outlook for Ethereum.

The recent market movements are so unpredictable that it's hard to describe them as anything else. Honestly, I still can't determine whether we're already in a bear market, but I personally think the probability of an immediate bull market is extremely low.
Let's start with Bitcoin (BTC). When Bitcoin broke below the 90k mark before, the technical indicators had already deteriorated and broken down. That kind of drop wasn't just normal shakeout; it indicated a trend loosening. Many people keep shouting "bulls are back," but in my view, unless it can stage a very violent rally—like ten days of continuous strong push, reclaiming the 90k level, and then confirming support to push higher—the bull market scenario is unlikely to truly materialize. Only if such an extreme move occurs, smashing the bears, can the bull market script really come into play. Otherwise, the current tug-of-war is probably just a consolidation or wide-range fluctuation. My strategy for Bitcoin is two words: wait and see. Don't blindly buy the dip, nor chase the short. Let the bullets fly a little longer.
But if Bitcoin makes me hesitant, my stance on Ethereum (ETH) is very clear: mainly short, no debate.
No matter how Bitcoin rebounds or how much Ethereum can rally in the short term, I won't change this view. The reason is simple: the fundamentals are just not there.
What can support Ethereum to trigger a big bull run? ETF capital inflows are weak, on-chain ecosystems are being drained by major L2s, and not only has it failed to create new wealth-creation narratives, but it’s also gradually losing its former moat. An asset lacking endogenous growth drivers and with severely lagging fundamentals—why should it enjoy valuation premiums in a bull market? Many people see green candles and get FOMO, fearing missing out, but that’s exactly market manipulation of emotions.
Investing can't just rely on K-line charts; rallies unsupported by fundamentals are just playing tricks. Even if it is pushed up short-term by Bitcoin’s momentum, ultimately, value will revert. In this confusing market, sticking to your logic is more important than anything. I choose to observe Bitcoin, and I firmly hold a short position on Ethereum. No matter how it jumps around, bad money can't last long, and we’ll let time prove it.