4.15 Gold must break below 4800, and for the pullback depth, look at 4760

News overview:

Last weekend, the US-Iran negotiations broke down. Trump threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which drove oil prices to surge higher this Monday. Gold opened with a gap down and lower open, but because the US-Iran negotiations have not completely broken down, both sides have released signals that dialogue may continue. Reports say the next round of negotiations will be held later this week. Pakistan urged extending the ceasefire period by 45 days. Oil prices pulled back from high levels, and gold quickly stabilized and rebounded.

Late Tuesday evening, Trump said that the war between the United States and Iran has ended, and that negotiations with Iran may be restarted in the next two days. On the same day, the Strait of Hormuz resumed partial navigation. Oil prices continued to fall. As concerns about inflation eased, the U.S. dollar fell to a new low since March. Gold rallied during the US session and set a new April high.

From the 4-hour chart, the price is currently trading below the MA5 and above the MA10/MA20. The momentum of short-term bulls pushing upward has significantly weakened, and it has officially entered a technical adjustment phase to pull back and confirm support. The KDJ indicator quickly dropped out of the overbought zone (above 80), forming a death cross at high levels and spreading downward. The J value fell sharply, confirming that short-term bearish momentum is concentratedly releasing. The pullback demand after the prior overbought conditions has already been fully realized. Overall, it is still on the “buying dip” phase within an uptrend.

From the 1-hour chart, the candlesticks show the characteristic of highs gradually moving lower and the correction strength continuing to increase. The previous one-way uptrend has temporarily paused, and it has shifted into a short-term pullback and repair cycle. The MA5/MA10 have formed a death cross pointing downward, which puts short-term downward pressure on gold. MA20 is flat, with bulls and bears in a tug-of-war here, meaning short-term bears have the upper hand.

For core support below, watch the 4790-4800 range: if 4790 is effectively broken, it will confirm that the pullback depth has opened up. The next downside target is in the 4750-4760 range. For key resistance above, watch the 4850 area. Only if the price stabilizes at this level can the end of the pullback be confirmed, and bulls may be able to restart their upward push.

Gold trading strategy: If it rebounds to 4830-4840, set up short positions in batches. Stop loss at 4855. Target 4790

If it breaks below 4790-4780, continue to chase the short. Stop loss at 4800. Target 4660

Disclaimer: The above is for personal thoughts and opinions sharing only and does not constitute trading advice