本纳周期：为何这个19世纪的公式仍能预测加密货币崩盘

You’ve probably heard of cycle analysis in crypto—halving cycles, on-chain cycles, seasonal patterns. But there’s one lesser-known framework that’s been quietly nailing market tops and bottoms for nearly 150 years: the Benner Cycle.

The Origin Story Nobody Talks About

Samuel Benner wasn’t a Wall Street economist. He was a 19th-century pig farmer who got rekt—hard. After multiple financial panics wiped him out, he obsessed over one question: Why do markets crash the same way, over and over?

Benner spent years analyzing price data from commodities (corn, pork, iron) and noticed something wild: market crises followed predictable intervals, repeating roughly every 18-20 years. In 1875, he published his findings in “Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices.”

The man mapped the future like a blockchain. And it worked.

The Three-Part Blueprint

Benner’s framework is brutally simple:

Type A Years – Panic Crashes Markets implode. This is when financial crises hit. Benner predicted: 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, 2035, 2053.

Notice anything? 2019 was a top for crypto. The model called it.

Type B Years – Sell Peaks The euphoria phase. Prices are bloated, valuations are insane, FOMO is everywhere. Benner identified: 1926, 1945, 1962, 1980, 2007, 2026.

This is when you dump bags and take profits. Bitcoin ATHs historically cluster near these years.

Type C Years – Buy Lows The bloodbath is over. Prices are depressed, weak hands are shaken out. Time to stack. Benner marked: 1931, 1942, 1958, 1985, 2012.

2012 was a monster accumulation year for Bitcoin before the 2013 bull run.

Why This Works for Crypto

Benner’s cycle captures something deeper than technical analysis: human psychology cycles.

In crypto, we see the exact same pattern:

• Euphoria → speculation → overleveraging
• Panic → liquidations → capitulation
• Despair → accumulation → recovery

This repeats. Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycle? It syncs surprisingly well with Benner’s intervals. The 2017 peak, 2020 crash, 2021 top—all echo Benner’s framework.

Practical Application for Traders

Bull runs (Type B years): Exit positions, secure profits, reduce leverage. Don’t marry your bags at ATH.

Bear markets (Type C years): This is accumulation season. Buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, major alts when sentiment is at rock bottom. The best returns come after the worst pain.

Crisis years (Type A): Market structure breaks. Be defensive or sit in stables.

The next Benner panic year? 2035. The next major buy window? Watch for the aftermath of 2026-2027 cycles.

The Bottom Line

Markets aren’t random. They’re cyclical. Benner proved it across 150+ years of data. While crypto adds new variables (adoption, tech upgrades, regulation), the emotional extremes—greed and fear—remain constant.

Understanding these cycles won’t make you rich overnight. But it’ll keep you from panic-selling bottoms or holding through peaks. For long-term crypto investors, that’s the real edge.