📢 GM!Gate 广场|4/5 热议:#假期持币指南
🌿 踏青还是盯盘?#假期持币指南 带你过个“松弛感”长假!
春光正好,你是选择在山间深呼吸,还是在 K 线里找时机?在这个清明假期,晒出你的持币态度,做个精神饱满的交易员!
🎁 分享生活/交易感悟,抽 5 位锦鲤瓜分 $1,000 仓位体验券!
💬 茶余饭后聊聊:
1️⃣ 休假心态: 你是“关掉通知、彻底失联”派,还是“每 30 分钟必刷行情”派?
2️⃣ 懒人秘籍: 假期不想盯盘?分享你的“挂机”策略(定投/网格/理财)。
3️⃣ 四月展望: 假期过后,你最看好哪个币种“春暖花开”?
分享你的假期姿态 👉 https://www.gate.com/post
📅 4/4 15:00 - 4/6 18:00 (UTC+8)
In the 0-100% probability range of Polymarket events:
The 0-10% and 90%-100% probability intervals have the highest number of trading users and transactions. Both have accumulated over 1.8 million trading users and over 100 million transactions, significantly higher than other intervals.
Trading volume rankings roughly follow a progression from low to high probability. The 90-100% probability interval has accumulated trading volume exceeding $22 billion, almost equal to the sum of all other intervals; followed by the 41-50% probability interval at over $5.2 billion.
Interestingly, while it's generally believed that 0-10% events have the lowest probability of occurring, from redeemed trades, the win rate for betting on 0-10% reached 9.185%, ranking in the middle; the lowest is actually the 41-50% middle probability interval where the win rate is lowest when information is relatively symmetric; although the 91-100% win rate is highest, the odds are actually mediocre, and continuous heavy betting would eventually result in losses.
Of course, there are notable limitations in the statistics. Many losing positions directly choose not to redeem, making them difficult to track, so the actual win rate for retail traders may be even lower.