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从降息到加息:市场的静默重置
现在2026年美联储加息的概率为46.9%,与几周前市场自信地预期多次降息的情况形成了鲜明对比。这种逆转并不微不足道,它反映了宏观环境被重新评估的更深层次变化。
这种转变的核心是紧张局势。通胀仍然顽固,令美联储保持谨慎,而经济风险持续增加。正是这种稳定与压力之间的平衡推动了不确定性,远超过任何单一的头条新闻。