As of August 19, 2025, Bitcoin price currently reported at $115,650 on Gate, down about 7% from the historical high of $124,350 reached on August 13.
The recent pullback is behind over $500 million in leveraged position liquidations and a shift in macro policy, but analysts generally believe this is merely a technical adjustment in the bull market process.
The real focus is: when will Bitcoin break through the previous high? What will the next historical high point reach?
Market Plummets: The Resonance of Leverage Liquidation and Policy Shift
Bitcoin has recently experienced significant volatility. On August 18, it saw a single-day drop of 2.29%, with the price briefly dipping to $115,046, marking a two-week low.
This adjustment was triggered by multiple factors:
- Inflation data dampens rate cut expectations: The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, leading to a cooling of market expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
- Change in the Treasury Department’s policy stance: The U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly stated that Bitcoin will not be included in strategic reserves, instead seeking a "budget-neutral" solution, which has weakened institutional entry expectations.
- Geopolitical risks escalate: The US-Russia summit did not reach an agreement on the Ukraine issue, and Trump has shifted to support Moscow’s position, intensifying geopolitical tensions.
- Leverage bubble burst: The derivatives market liquidated over 500 million dollars within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for nearly 70%, triggering a chain of selling pressure.
The market sentiment indicator has fallen from the "greed" range to a neutral zone (index 56), indicating that investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude.
Cycle Prediction: Leading Analytical Models Indicate a Breakthrough in the Fourth Quarter
Despite short-term pressure, the most influential analysts in the cryptocurrency space almost unanimously believe that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Benjamin Cowen’s Halving Cycle Model
As an authority in the field of cryptocurrency analysis, Cowen proposes based on the three historical halving cycles of Bitcoin:
- Prices are expected to peak between mid-October and mid-November 2025
- Target range of $131,000 – $154,000, corresponding to a potential increase of 13–33% from the current price
- A pullback may occur in September, testing the support of the 20-week moving average, forming a healthy consolidation.
Peter Brandt’s Backed Cycle Expansion Model
Legendary traditional finance trader Peter Brandt recently supported a more aggressive technical prediction:
- Two scenario paths:
- Mild scenario: $150,000 – $180,000
- Extended scenario: $250,000 – $280,000
- Key time window: September to December 2025
- The model is based on Bitcoin’s four expansion waves since 2011, peaking on average 16–18 months after halving.
Institutional Consensus Targets
The predictions of mainstream financial institutions, while relatively conservative, are still significantly higher than the current price levels:
- Standard Chartered: $200,000 (end of 2025)
- Bernstein & VanEck: $145,000 – $200,000 range
- Galaxy Digital & Fidelity: long-term target of $1,000,000 (2030)
Key technical levels: Breaking through these levels will confirm the upward trend.
Currently, Bitcoin is at a key support zone, and the technical pattern will determine its recent direction:
- Key support zone: $115,000 – $112,000 range, including the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and psychological level.
- Strength and weakness dividing line: $120,500, breaking this level will confirm the start of a new round of upward movement.
- Resistance above: historical high of $124,350, breaking through will open the channel to $131,000.
On-chain data provides positive signals: Bitcoin’s hash rate increased by 4% at the beginning of August, indicating that miners recognize the medium to long-term value. The SOPR metric for short-term holders (within 155 days) has rebounded above the neutral line, suggesting reduced selling pressure and that profit-taking has not triggered a large-scale follow-up.
Risk Warning: Variables That May Disrupt the Bull Market Timeline
Although the cycle model shows a high degree of consistency, investors should be cautious of three major variables that may delay the breakout time:
- Federal Reserve policy tighter than expected: If inflation data continues to exceed expectations, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, suppressing the performance of risk assets.
- Crypto Derivatives Regulation Shift: The U.S. Treasury is considering implementing leverage restrictions, which could impact the $5.2 trillion derivatives market structure.
- Geopolitical Black Swan: The escalation of the situation in Ukraine or the resurgence of China-US trade frictions may trigger a liquidity crisis.
It is worth noting that institutional funds have not withdrawn on a large scale. Bitcoin ETF shows structural liquidity:
- Grayscale and Ark Invest experienced outflows
- BlackRock’s IBIT product continues to receive net inflows
- Overall market positions remain stable, with funds rotating more between products rather than exiting the market.
Countdown to a historical high: Timeline under three scenarios
Based on the comprehensive technical analysis, fundamentals, and cyclical models, the Bitcoin innovation high may follow the following path:
Benchmark Scenario (Probability 60%)
- September pullback completing bottoming near $112,000
- October breaking through previous high of $124,350
- November reaching the range of $140,000 – $155,000
Strong Scenario (Probability 25%)
- Stabilize at $117,000 by the end of August and initiate an upward trend early
- Break through historical high in September
- Reach the upper boundary of the $180,000 channel by year-end
Delay Scenario (Probability 15%)
- Macroeconomic risks lead to the loss of support at $112,000
- Deep correction to the $100,000 – $105,000 range
- New highs postponed to Q1 2026
Future Outlook
The crypto market is always accompanied by high volatility, but historical patterns and on-chain data provide clear guidance: Bitcoin is just one step away from its historical high. Once the market digests the short-term policy shocks, institutional funds continue to flow in through ETFs, and the scarcity effect brought by the halving becomes evident, the fourth quarter of 2025 is very likely to become a new starting point for Bitcoin to break through 150,000 USD.
The assertion of legendary trader Peter Brandt may best summarize the current situation: "Charts don’t lie; this cycle points to $250,000, not a dream but mathematics.
