According to Gate market data, as of August 4, 2025, XRP is currently priced at $2.93, with a daily decline of 4.34% and a market capitalization of $173.6 billion, firmly holding the third position in the cryptocurrency rankings. Despite a nearly 13% drop over the past week, falling below the key psychological support level of $3, several institutions and analysts believe that this round of correction is actually a buildup phase for the next strong rebound, with the target price of $4 soon to be reached.
Market Divergence Intensifies: Brief Pullback vs Prelude to Bull Market
Current market for XRP The trend judgment shows a polarization:
- Bearish view: Technical analysts warn that if the support zone of $2.80 - $2.95 cannot be held, it may further drop to the $2.40 - $2.60 range (potential 16% decline). In the past 48 hours, whale addresses have sold over 720 million XRP, intensifying market selling pressure.
- Bullish signal: Google Gemini AI predicts the target price at the end of August to be $4.45 (range $3.6 - $5.2); the DeepSeek model also indicates that $3.5 - $4.0 is the technical target for August. On-chain data shows a large accumulation of buy orders in the range of $2.40 - $2.60, which may serve as a rebound springboard.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized: "$2.40 - $2.60 is the strategic accumulation zone, and once buying power returns, XRP will restart its rising trend."
Three Major Catalysts: Key Events Breaking Through in August
If XRP is to hit $4 in August, three major events will be decisive variables:
- August 15 - Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit update: Both parties will submit a joint progress report. If the SEC abandons the appeal or reaches a settlement, it will clear the long-term regulatory haze for XRP and stimulate institutional entry.
- October 18 - Spot XRP ETF final review window: Grayscale and 21Shares’ spot ETF applications will be approved by the SEC. If approved, XRP will access traditional capital channels worth hundreds of billions, replicating the BTC +60% market trend after Bitcoin ETF approval.
- November - Global banks complete ISO 20022 upgrade: SWIFT network banking system migrates to ISO 20022 standard, deeply compatible with RippleNet technology architecture, and the adoption rate of cross-border payments may see a surge.
Technical Analysis: Rebound signals have appeared, a 20% rise is imminent.
Multiple technical indicators show that XRP is at a rebound critical point:
- Bullish divergence forming: On the 4-hour chart, the price is declining while the RSI indicator continues to rise, indicating that selling pressure is weakening and buying is gradually entering.
- The descending wedge breakout is imminent: if it breaks through the $3.07 trend line, based on the Fibonacci retracement levels, the short-term target is $3.60 - $3.65 (rise of 20%).
- Dragonfly Doji signal: A classic reversal pattern appears on the daily chart, with historically similar patterns having triggered a 65% rise (April 2025).
Conclusion: If it holds steady at $2.80 in August, the journey to $4 officially begins.
Despite short-term pressure, XRP has met the breakthrough conditions on technical, fundamental, and news fronts. If it can hold the support zone of $2.80 - $2.95 and take advantage of the favorable regulatory winds on August 15, then the target range of $3.5 - $4.5 is expected to be achieved within the month. If the spot ETF is approved as scheduled, then $6 - $10 will become the next target for the bulls.
