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Multiple institutions raise U.S. economic recession probability; Moody's predicts recession probability rises to 48.6% over the next 12 months

Macroeconomics Geopolitics

2026-03-26 05:33:11

Gate News reports that on March 25th, U.S. sources stated that the ongoing Israel-U.S. conflict has added additional downside risks to the U.S. economy. Several institutions have recently raised the probability of a recession in the United States. Moody's Analytics model shows that the chance of a recession within the next 12 months has increased to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust and Ernst & Young-Booz Allen respectively estimate the recession risk at 45% and 40%. Under normal circumstances, this probability would be around 20%. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi said, "What is concerning is that the recession risk is 'uncomfortably high and continues to rise,' and a recession is now a real threat." If current high oil prices persist into late May through the end of Q2, "the U.S. economy will fall into a recession."

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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