$BTC ‌#GateSquareMayTradingShare
🔥 Despite war fears, Bitcoin tests $80,000: Is the 3-month resistance breaking?
✨ In the first week of May, Bitcoin tested $80,000 for the first time since January, in a move that kept investors glued to their screens. This period, marked by rising geopolitical tensions from the Middle East, historic ETF inflows, and a massive short squeeze, signals a turning point for BTC.
🔹 Rally in the shadow of geopolitical tension
✨ While BTC was reaching $80,000, news broke that a missile, believed to be Iranian, had struck a US patrol boat near Jask Island. Although BTC retreated to around $79,000, it managed to hold just below the critical threshold.
✨ Brent oil's jump of over 5% and the fragility of risk appetite are emerging as the biggest obstacles to the rally.
🔹 $150 Million in 60 Minutes: Details of the Short Squeeze
✨ On the morning of May 4th, BTC triggered the sharpest short squeeze in recent months, surpassing $80,000 in just 60 minutes. According to Coinglass data, $150 million worth of short positions were liquidated in just one hour. ✨ This figure reached $195 million in a four-hour window, and a total of $370 million in 24 hours. ✨ Futures data showed that 62.8% of open positions were short before the squeeze. This asymmetrical picture created a classic short squeeze dynamic, with liquidations triggering chain buying that pushed the price upwards.
🔹 Supply Shock: Institutional Demand Exceeds 500% of Daily Supply
✨ Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, emphasized in his recent assessment that institutions absorbed more than 500% of the daily BTC mining supply. With the April 2024 halving, daily new BTC production dropped to around 450 units, while ETFs and institutional buyers are acquiring over 2,250 BTC per day. ✨ Edwards points out that historically, when this level is reached, BTC gains an average of 24% in the following month. At current pricing, this corresponds to a target of approximately $96,000.
🔹 ETF Front: Strong Start to May After April Record
✨ US spot Bitcoin ETFs got off to a strong start in May with net inflows exceeding $625 million on May 1st. BlackRock IBIT pulled in $284 million, Fidelity FBTC $213 million, making April the strongest ETF month of 2026 with total inflows of $2.44 billion. ✨ Total net inflows since launch have reached $58.5 billion, while assets under management have exceeded $102 billion. The requirement for ETF issuers to hold physical BTC in custodians creates a cycle where each net inflow permanently reduces the circulating liquid supply.
🔹 Sentiment indicators: What does the Fear Index say?
✨ Despite all this volatility, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is hovering in the 40-44 range, meaning between “fear” and “neutral.”
✨ Historically, periods when the index is far from the greed zone are considered strong accumulation opportunities. In this conjuncture where BTC has broken a key supply level, the fact that the indicator remains low may indicate the early stages of the rally.
🔹 Technical outlook: Struggle to turn resistance into support
✨ After breaking out of a descending channel that has lasted for months, BTC is now trying to turn $80,000 into support. This coincides with the lower boundary of a strong resistance zone that extends to the $75,000-$85,700 range on the weekly chart. ✨ In the event of a high-volume breakout, the next targets are the $84,000-$85,500 range; a break above these levels could trigger a potential short squeeze wave, pushing the move up to $97,800.
💫 “Bull markets rise by climbing over walls of fear. The greatest opportunities are for those who can maintain their courage even amidst bloodshed.”