I just realized something quite interesting about the token unlock model in the crypto market. Most people are afraid when they hear about an upcoming unlock, but in reality, it doesn't always put downward pressure on prices.

The so-called token unlock is the process of releasing locked tokens into circulation. Initially, these tokens are locked to control supply, preventing early investors or the team from dumping immediately. But when the unlock date arrives, price volatility depends on many factors.

Market psychology plays the biggest role. When investors know an unlock is coming, they often sell beforehand, creating selling pressure even before the tokens are actually released. Additionally, the percentage of tokens being unlocked relative to the total circulating supply also determines the impact. If it’s a high proportion, the effect will be stronger.

The clearest example I see is the Official Trump coin. In April last year, the 40 million TRUMP tokens unlocked, accounting for about 20% of the circulating supply, causing significant concern. But afterward, the price rebounded strongly on positive news. Currently, the TRUMP price has dropped to $2.38, showing that other factors besides the token unlock influence the market.

On the other hand, Aptos offers a different lesson. All three unlocks of APT followed a similar pattern: the price rose before the unlock, peaked right at the moment of unlocking, then dumped afterward. But the third time, the scenario was disrupted because Bitcoin dropped sharply. Currently, APT is at $1.02, up 4.04% in 24 hours.

The key takeaway is not to just look at the token unlock schedule but to analyze more deeply. Who will receive the tokens? Do they have an incentive to sell? Are there any accompanying news? Tools like Tokenomist or DeFiLlama help track detailed unlock schedules, but investment decisions should combine technical analysis and overall market conditions.

Token unlocks are not always a bearish signal. They can be an opportunity if you know how to read the market and analyze the relevant factors correctly. Stay alert, and avoid making decisions based solely on one element.