$GT ‍#Gate广场五月交易分享

TON (The Open Network) is the next-generation blockchain platform, emphasizing speed, security, and scalability. Its core design philosophy is to process millions of transactions per second when necessary, while remaining user- and service provider-friendly.
TON's history dates back to 2018, when Telegram founder Pavel Durov launched the TON project and raised $1.7 billion, but it was subsequently halted due to legal action by the U.S. SEC. In 2020, community developers took over the project to continue development, transforming TON from "Telegram's blockchain" to "Telegram ecosystem blockchain." In May 2026, a fundamental shift occurred — Durov officially announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the main driving force and largest validator of TON, which is the second step in the MTONGA roadmap.
TON's technical architecture adopts an "infinite sharding" design, achieving horizontal scalability through dynamic sharding mechanisms, theoretically allowing unlimited throughput growth as demand increases.
Core applications within the TON ecosystem include: Mini App ecosystem within Telegram, TON Space wallet, on-chain payments (USDT issuance on TON has exceeded 1 billion), DeFi protocols (staking, lending, DEX), and recently launched AI agent features (TON Tech released on April 28th, capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi, and staking operations).
II. Current Market Overview
TON's current price is 1.8151 USDT, with a 24-hour surge of 30.36%, and intraday volatility between 1.3635 and 1.8742. 7-day increase is 37.35%, 30-day increase is 46.85%, 90-day increase is 44.06%, showing a very strong short-term upward trend. Market cap is approximately $4.85B, ranked 27th, classifying it as a mid-cap token.
24-hour trading volume is about 15.6 million USDT, with a trading volume of 9.03M TON. Contract holdings increased by 22.36% over 24 hours (from 189.5 million to 231.9 million), with highly intense leverage trading. The fear/greed index has risen to 50, indicating market sentiment shifting from fear to neutral leaning towards greed.
Social sentiment is extremely optimistic: positive sentiment accounts for 85%, negative 15%, with a sentiment score of 70%, dominated by bullishness. Discussion activity has surged — posts in the past 3 days increased by 75% compared to the previous 4–6 days (89 vs. 51).
III. Recent Major Events and Catalysts
Event 1: Telegram Officially Takes Over TON (Most Core Catalyst)
On May 4–5, Durov officially announced that Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the main driver and largest validator of TON. This means TON is shifting from a "community-driven blockchain" back to an "officially supported Telegram blockchain," backed by the world's largest messaging platform with 900 million monthly active users. Related technical upgrades will be launched within 2–3 weeks. This is the most direct catalyst for the recent surge — Telegram's official endorsement provides unprecedented credibility and user reach for TON.
Event 2: Transaction Fees Reduced by 6 Times to Near Zero
After validator voting approval, TON network transaction fees have been reduced by about 6 times. Sending TON now costs approximately $0.00052, and sending USDT costs about $0.00142. Near-zero fees significantly lower the barrier for users, laying the infrastructure foundation for explosive growth in micro-payments, on-chain DeFi, and Mini App ecosystems.
Event 3: TON Tech Launches AI Agents
On April 28, TON Tech launched AI agents capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi, and staking operations without user private key interaction. The AI + blockchain narrative is one of the hottest tracks in 2026, and TON's deployment in this field adds extra narrative premium.
Event 4: Mainnet Validator Rules Updated
On May 2, TON officially released an update to mainnet validator rules, proposing to raise the minimum staking threshold from 824k to 1 million tokens, and the maximum to 3 million tokens. Increasing the staking threshold means validators need to hold more TON to participate in network maintenance, which will boost staking demand and reduce circulating supply, providing structural support for the token price.
IV. Technical Analysis
Trend Signals
The trend is extremely strong. The 4-hour ADX is 49.73 (PDI=53.53, far greater than MDI=1.68), and the daily ADX is similarly very high, indicating a strong upward trend among all analyzed tokens. From 15-minute to daily charts, all moving averages are aligned bullishly — MA7 > MA30 > MA120 across all timeframes.
The 4-hour PDI (53.53) and MDI (1.68) show a huge gap (about 32 times), indicating that upward momentum overwhelmingly dominates downward momentum, with bulls in full control. Such an extreme PDI/MDI ratio rarely appears in normal markets and is often associated with major bullish catalysts leading to rapid surges.
Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with price far above the upper band — current price at 1.7928 is about 10.5% above the Bollinger upper band at 1.6220, with a bandwidth of 0.4883 far exceeding the 20-day average bandwidth of 0.2828. The price breaking above the upper band suggests strong ongoing momentum.
24-hour volume surge — trading volume is about 37 times the 7-day average (824k vs. 41,500 USDT), indicating significantly increased market participation. Unlike DOGS, where price rise was accompanied by shrinking volume, TON's rapid surge is supported by ample funds, making the rally more credible.
Comparison with DOGS Overbought Condition
Both TON and DOGS are in extreme overbought states, but their overbought natures differ:
TON has volume support — trading volume is 37 times the 7-day average, driven by real funds; DOGS's price rise is accompanied by shrinking volume, only 1/650 of the 7-day average, lacking fund support.
TON has fundamental catalysts — Telegram takeover + fee reduction + AI agents + staking threshold increase, multiple substantial positive factors stacking; DOGS's catalysts mainly stem from Revolut listing and ecosystem spillover effects.
TON's market cap is larger — $15.42M (rank 27) vs. DOGS's $37.39 million (rank 576), with higher liquidity and relatively controlled volatility.
This means that although TON is severely overbought, the "quality" of the overbought is higher — supported by funds and fundamentals, the correction may be more moderate; whereas unsupported hype may see sharper declines.
V. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Short-term (1–3 days)
TON is in a state of "extremely strong trend + severe overbought + volume surge + major catalysts." Unlike DOGS's false overbought, TON's rally is backed by real funds and fundamentals, making its overbought condition more meaningful.
However, extreme overbought almost always signals a technical correction. Currently, it’s not advisable to chase the high. If you already hold TON, consider partial profit-taking — with the 4-hour RSI at 91, a correction could happen at any time. Protect realized gains rather than chasing further unrealized profits.
If you haven't held TON but want to buy in, wait for a pullback to the 4-hour support levels before entering. The 4-hour MA7 around 1.61 and MA30 around 1.40 are potential support zones. At that point, overbought indicators will likely have been digested, offering a better risk-reward entry.
Negative funding rate (-0.000076) favors long positions — you can earn funding during holding, adding an extra advantage for long TON positions.
Medium-term (1–3...)