Lately, I've seen everyone using stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and similar metrics as the "bull-bear switch," but I want to pour a little cold water: the correlation looks convincing, but don't casually treat it as causation. Whether off-chain money is willing to come in depends on emotions, risk appetite, and regulatory trends; sometimes it's just "money waiting in stablecoins for opportunities," not an indication of an imminent surge.

Airdrop season also seems to follow this logic—when points rise, people think "the project is about to take off," but when the task platform tightens restrictions, everyone shifts from just earning tokens to clocking in at work... Basically, the rules have changed, not that the chain suddenly has more value.

I'm now just treating myself as doing a "backup": slowly waiting with my main account, leaving room for action, and not relying on a single indicator as the only script. Anyway, as long as I can survive longer, I consider it a win.