#BTC After $64,000, Bitcoin is waiting for an answer
Over the past week, Bitcoin rebounded from around $58,000 to above $64,000, a gain of approximately 12%. On the surface, the reason seems clear: ETF funds returned, and with June employment data weaker than expected, the market's assessment of the rate hike path has loosened. But if you break down these two clues, the quality of this rebound may not be as solid as it appears on the surface.
The ETF data on July 6 did look good, with net inflows of about $266 million. But when you look at the structure, you can see the problem: BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed $209 million, with the remaining tens of millions split among Fidelity, ARKB, and a few others, while Grayscale's GBTC was still seeing outflows that day. IBIT broke its prolonged period of silence and intermittent outflows, posting its highest single-day inflow in weeks, but a number propped up by one buyer cannot indicate a broad recovery in institutional demand.
The total net outflow of $4.5 billion in June set a new historical record. Citigroup recently lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000 and effectively zeroed out expected ETF inflows. If buying pressure remains concentrated on BlackRock over the next few days, then the green candle on July 6 was just a temporary breather.
What really ignited this rebound was last week's employment data. June nonfarm payrolls added only 57k jobs, compared with market expectations of around 110k. This massive gap led traders to reassess the Fed's rate path, which in turn pushed Bitcoin higher. But there is one detail that is easy to overlook: this jobs data was released after the June FOMC meeting. When the meeting was held on June 16–17, Fed officials did not yet have this report. There was already disagreement within the meeting, with some leaning toward keeping rates steady, some believing another rate hike was needed, and reportedly at least one member advocating for a cut.
The June meeting minutes, to be released this Wednesday, will be the real test of this rebound. If the minutes show that officials were already worried about the jobs slowdown in June, then the rebound has fundamental support. If the discussion still focuses on inflation and rate hike conditions, then last week's gains will likely be erased. CME data shows that the probability of a September rate hike has dropped from nearly 65% to about 53%, indicating that the market is pricing in a dovish direction, but whether that pricing is correct will only be confirmed when the minutes are released. On-chain data is also signaling something.
The number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges has increased significantly over the past week, with some days seeing over 50,000 BTC. Looking at exchange net flows, although single-day data briefly turned to net inflows, the 7-day cumulative net inflow is only a few hundred BTC, so there is no persistent selling pressure yet. However, some large holders have transferred a considerable amount of BTC to exchanges near the $60,000 level, as if they had placed sell orders in advance before the meeting minutes release. The leverage structure is also unhealthy: the funding rate of 0.00719 is still above the 30-day average, indicating that long positions remain crowded, and the downside risk persists if the market weakens.
Another interesting phenomenon in this rebound is that Bitcoin's market dominance dropped from 58% to 54%, while the total market cap share of other crypto assets rose from 19% to nearly 25%. It looks like funds are spreading out from Bitcoin. But can this be called an altcoin season? Probably not quite yet. The projects leading the charge share one common feature: they have real revenue, and that revenue is directly converted into buybacks or burns. Hyperliquid has bought back $283 million worth of tokens this year, Aave links protocol revenue to buybacks, and Jupiter has proposed using 70% of fees for buybacks. The rise of these projects is backed by real money flowing in, not just storytelling. This kind of market is healthier than the past where everything soared together, but it also means that once expectations are not met, the pullback will be fast. Capital is concentrated in a few projects with buyback mechanisms, so fundamentals hold well, but the gap when catalysts run out will also be amplified.
Whether Bitcoin's current rebound can hold depends on Wednesday's meeting minutes. If it's confirmed that the Fed has noted the jobs slowdown, it could continue to move higher. If inflation remains the main theme, this week's gains may not be sustainable. The same goes for altcoins: during a pullback, the leaders often fall the fastest.
But no matter how the short term plays out, the market has been validating a trend over the past few months: projects with revenue and buybacks are forming real price support, while projects built solely on narratives and concepts are being neglected. The industry is indeed shifting from storytelling to looking at numbers, which is good for the long term. But for now, everything depends on those minutes. The Fed holds the market's key—whichever way it turns, that's the direction.#美国比特币ETF净流入4026枚BTC
Over the past week, Bitcoin rebounded from around $58,000 to above $64,000, a gain of approximately 12%. On the surface, the reason seems clear: ETF funds returned, and with June employment data weaker than expected, the market's assessment of the rate hike path has loosened. But if you break down these two clues, the quality of this rebound may not be as solid as it appears on the surface.
The ETF data on July 6 did look good, with net inflows of about $266 million. But when you look at the structure, you can see the problem: BlackRock's IBIT alone contributed $209 million, with the remaining tens of millions split among Fidelity, ARKB, and a few others, while Grayscale's GBTC was still seeing outflows that day. IBIT broke its prolonged period of silence and intermittent outflows, posting its highest single-day inflow in weeks, but a number propped up by one buyer cannot indicate a broad recovery in institutional demand.
The total net outflow of $4.5 billion in June set a new historical record. Citigroup recently lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000 and effectively zeroed out expected ETF inflows. If buying pressure remains concentrated on BlackRock over the next few days, then the green candle on July 6 was just a temporary breather.
What really ignited this rebound was last week's employment data. June nonfarm payrolls added only 57k jobs, compared with market expectations of around 110k. This massive gap led traders to reassess the Fed's rate path, which in turn pushed Bitcoin higher. But there is one detail that is easy to overlook: this jobs data was released after the June FOMC meeting. When the meeting was held on June 16–17, Fed officials did not yet have this report. There was already disagreement within the meeting, with some leaning toward keeping rates steady, some believing another rate hike was needed, and reportedly at least one member advocating for a cut.
The June meeting minutes, to be released this Wednesday, will be the real test of this rebound. If the minutes show that officials were already worried about the jobs slowdown in June, then the rebound has fundamental support. If the discussion still focuses on inflation and rate hike conditions, then last week's gains will likely be erased. CME data shows that the probability of a September rate hike has dropped from nearly 65% to about 53%, indicating that the market is pricing in a dovish direction, but whether that pricing is correct will only be confirmed when the minutes are released. On-chain data is also signaling something.
The number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges has increased significantly over the past week, with some days seeing over 50,000 BTC. Looking at exchange net flows, although single-day data briefly turned to net inflows, the 7-day cumulative net inflow is only a few hundred BTC, so there is no persistent selling pressure yet. However, some large holders have transferred a considerable amount of BTC to exchanges near the $60,000 level, as if they had placed sell orders in advance before the meeting minutes release. The leverage structure is also unhealthy: the funding rate of 0.00719 is still above the 30-day average, indicating that long positions remain crowded, and the downside risk persists if the market weakens.
Another interesting phenomenon in this rebound is that Bitcoin's market dominance dropped from 58% to 54%, while the total market cap share of other crypto assets rose from 19% to nearly 25%. It looks like funds are spreading out from Bitcoin. But can this be called an altcoin season? Probably not quite yet. The projects leading the charge share one common feature: they have real revenue, and that revenue is directly converted into buybacks or burns. Hyperliquid has bought back $283 million worth of tokens this year, Aave links protocol revenue to buybacks, and Jupiter has proposed using 70% of fees for buybacks. The rise of these projects is backed by real money flowing in, not just storytelling. This kind of market is healthier than the past where everything soared together, but it also means that once expectations are not met, the pullback will be fast. Capital is concentrated in a few projects with buyback mechanisms, so fundamentals hold well, but the gap when catalysts run out will also be amplified.
Whether Bitcoin's current rebound can hold depends on Wednesday's meeting minutes. If it's confirmed that the Fed has noted the jobs slowdown, it could continue to move higher. If inflation remains the main theme, this week's gains may not be sustainable. The same goes for altcoins: during a pullback, the leaders often fall the fastest.
But no matter how the short term plays out, the market has been validating a trend over the past few months: projects with revenue and buybacks are forming real price support, while projects built solely on narratives and concepts are being neglected. The industry is indeed shifting from storytelling to looking at numbers, which is good for the long term. But for now, everything depends on those minutes. The Fed holds the market's key—whichever way it turns, that's the direction.#美国比特币ETF净流入4026枚BTC
