Trump says the request for Pakistan-mediated ceasefire extension should be granted, but with tough conditions: Iran must first submit a unified plan before continuing talks. Iran has explicitly refused to participate in the April 22 negotiations, claiming the U.S. violated the ten-point framework agreement during the first round of Islamabad talks. Adding to this, Trump's previous strong warning that Iran might be bombed, and Vance's trip to Pakistan still undecided, this ceasefire seems more like a "life extension," extremely fragile and susceptible to being torn apart by unforeseen events.
Market reactions are also typical: as soon as the news broke, risk appetite improved, BTC broke through $76,000, with approximately $260 million in liquidations across the network, including about $171 million in short positions, clearly driven by "news-driven rally + short covering," accelerating the move. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil briefly surged to $93.68 (+3.65%) before slightly retreating, indicating that funds are trading on the optimistic sentiment of a "ceasefire extension," while still hedging against the tail risk of "negotiation breakdown/reignition of conflict."
Next, focus on three key points: whether negotiations can restart and provide an actionable timeline; whether oil prices will strengthen again (often indicating rising geopolitical risks); and whether BTC, after breaking through, can retest and hold support, or else face a retreat path of "short squeeze ending → profit-taking."
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