Over the past few months, markets have been fixated on a single question: Will the conflict escalate?
Concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions in oil supply, and whether precious metals can continue their upward trend have dominated global market sentiment. Oil prices surged to multi-year highs, gold reached historic records, and risk assets swung between optimism and fear.
However, in recent days, the market’s focus has begun to shift.
As the US-Iran peace agreement progresses, expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have strengthened. The market now believes the worst may be over. International oil prices have retreated steadily, with Brent crude falling back toward $80 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold has ended its deep correction and climbed back above $4,300, rising for three consecutive days. The market is transitioning from "conflict trading" to a new phase: trading on the aftermath of peace.
From Conflict Trading to Peace Trading: What’s Changing in the Market
If the past two months of market activity were a story, the first half was about pricing risk, while the second half is about trading on what happens after the risk fades.
Previously, energy prices rose mainly due to risk premiums. The market feared disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and supply chain interruptions, which drove up expectations for oil prices. Now, as the peace agreement takes hold, risk premiums are quickly dissipating, prompting the market to reassess future supply and demand dynamics.
According to Reuters, Brent crude has dropped to around $79, and WTI is down to $76. However, several institutions caution that even with a peace deal, the energy market won’t return to normal overnight. Infrastructure repairs, transport insurance, and inventory rebuilding in some regions could take months—or even longer.
This means the market has moved out of the first phase of conflict trading and entered a second phase of recovery trading. The second phase is often more complex, because as risk fades, attention shifts back to growth, demand, and capital flows.
Oil Prices Are Down, But Is the Energy Market Really Back to Normal?
Many investors see the drop in oil prices and assume the energy market has stabilized. But the reality may be more nuanced.
While reopening the Strait of Hormuz should ease supply pressures, Reuters notes that returning to pre-war transport levels could take months or even years. Slowing demand from China, inventory changes, and the summer consumption peak may also continue to influence oil price trends.
A decline in oil prices doesn’t mean volatility is over. In fact, it signals the market is shifting from "risk pricing" to "fundamental pricing." In the coming months, the energy market may enter a new phase: lower price centers, but persistently high volatility. Every inventory report, every update on transport recovery, and every policy change could reshape market expectations. That’s why many institutions have lowered their short-term oil price forecasts but haven’t turned fully bearish.
Markets are no longer worried about the worst-case scenario, but they haven’t truly returned to the past.
Gold Back Above $4,300: A New Narrative Is Emerging
Compared to oil, gold’s recent moves are even more intriguing. Traditionally, lower risk means less demand for safe havens, so gold should continue to correct.
Yet the reality is quite the opposite. Latest data shows Comex gold has risen for three straight sessions, reclaiming the $4,330 level. While it’s still well below this year’s record high above $5,300, the market’s perspective on gold is shifting.
Many institutions now see gold transitioning from a "safe haven asset" back to a "long-term allocation asset." Previously, war-driven oil spikes stoked inflation fears, and gold came under pressure as rate expectations rose. Now, with oil prices easing, the market is reassessing the future path of interest rates, giving gold renewed support.
Citi recently raised its short-term gold price target to $4,500 and maintains a bullish outlook for the medium to long term. This suggests gold’s future gains may no longer depend on risk events. Instead, gold is returning to fundamentals like central bank demand, long-term portfolio allocation, and the global monetary environment. For traders, this shift is significant—it means gold is moving from being an emotion-driven asset to a structurally driven one.
Why Gate TradFi Is Well-Suited to the New Market Rhythm
In recent years, many traders have focused on single markets. Some only watch gold, others trade energy, and some specialize in indices or tech sectors. But recent market action shows that one event can impact multiple markets simultaneously. After the peace deal, oil prices dropped, gold rallied, risk assets rebounded, and some tech sectors diverged. The connections between markets are tighter than ever.
This is where Gate TradFi adds value. Gate TradFi centers on CFDs, covering gold, silver, oil, indices, and stocks—traditional financial assets—while offering a unified account system to help users monitor multiple markets within a single framework. In this "post-conflict" second phase, traders don’t necessarily need higher leverage, but rather a broader market perspective.
Because the real question isn’t just "Will gold rise?"—it’s "Why is gold rising after oil prices fall?"
As risk appetite returns, where will capital flow next? When the market starts trading the future, understanding the relationships between assets may be more important than predicting the direction of a single asset. Gate TradFi provides exactly this kind of cross-market observation and trading capability.
FAQ
Why did oil prices drop so quickly after the peace agreement?
Because previous oil prices included a significant geopolitical risk premium. As expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz strengthened, the market rapidly removed this premium.Does falling oil prices mean the energy market is back to normal?
Not necessarily. Transport recovery, inventory rebuilding, and changes in demand still require time. The energy market may remain highly volatile in the near future.Why has gold climbed back above $4,300?
The market is reassessing interest rate and inflation expectations. Gold is shifting from a short-term safe haven to a long-term allocation asset, and many institutions remain bullish for the medium to long term.What is Gate TradFi’s core product?
Gate TradFi currently focuses on CFDs, supporting trading in gold, silver, oil, indices, and other traditional financial assets, all within a unified account system.What is the biggest feature of the current market?
The main feature is the shift from "conflict trading" to "post-peace repricing." The market is paying more attention to asset interconnections rather than single events themselves.
