📌 Core Judgment (March 25)
- Short-term (1–3 days): Converging triangle reversal + oscillation dominated, likely repeating in $68,800–$71,800 range
- Medium-term (1–4 weeks): Bearish oscillation correction, rebound height limited, difficult to break $75,000 previous high
- Long-term (Q2–Q4): Suppression followed by rise, Q4 expected to welcome cycle main uptrend
🧩 Short-term Trend (1–3 days)
1. Technical Analysis
- Pattern: Converging triangle endpoint, upper rail $71,000–$71,200, lower rail $68,800–$69,000, reversal window already open
- Indicators: 4H MACD red column shrinking, KDJ high position turnaround, bull momentum weakening; daily bear momentum volume reduced but not reversed
- Volume: Rebound with shrinking volume, pullback with moderate volume increase, insufficient bid support
2. Scenario Analysis
- Scenario A (Upward breakout): Hold $71,800 + 4H volume close positive → Look up to $72,500–$73,000, likely pullback thereafter
- Scenario B (Downward breakdown): Break below $68,800 + 4H volume close negative → Explore $68,000–$67,500, trigger stop-loss selling pressure
- Scenario C (Oscillation): Repeated within range → High sell low buy, $70,000–$71,000 bull-bear dividing line
📊 Medium-term Trend (1–4 weeks)
1. Core Pressure
- Macro: Federal Reserve maintains high rates longer, 0% rate cut probability in 4/6 months, June rate hike expectations warm up, suppressing non-yielding assets
- Technical: Daily MA20/30/60 downward pressure, no breakthrough of downtrend line, medium-term bearish
- Funds: ETF outflows, whale selling pressure, leverage liquidation negative feedback, insufficient incremental capital
2. Key Levels
- Resistance: $71,800 (strong pressure) → $74,000 (Fibonacci 0.786) → $75,600 (previous high)
- Support: $68,000 (weekly support) → $65,000 (strong support) → $63,000 (February low)
3. Trend Path
- High probability: Oscillating decline + oversold rebound alternating, rebounds difficult to break $74,000, center of gravity gradually lower
- Low probability: Macro shift (rate cut expectations ease) + fund inflow → Break $75,600, initiate medium-term rebound
🚀 Long-term Trend (Q2–Q4 2026)
1. Institutional Consensus
- First half (Q2): Oscillating bottom grinding, macro, regulation, funds repeatedly disturbing, no trending market
- Q3: Bottom building stabilization, liquidity expectations improve, ETF fund inflow, miner clearing complete
- Q4: Cycle main uptrend, halving effect + liquidity easing + institutional reallocation convergence, target $100,000+
2. Key Drivers
- Liquidity: Federal Reserve rate cuts late Q3–Q4, US dollar weakens, funds flow back to risk assets
- Supply-demand: Post-halving supply reduction, ETF continuous inflow, miner selling pressure weakens
- Regulation: "Clear Act" lands, uncertainty eliminated, institutions enter compliant
🎯 Operating Strategy (By Period)
Short-term (Intraday/1–3 days)
- Range: $69,800–$70,000 light long, stop loss $68,700, target $71,000–$71,200
- Range: $71,000–$71,200 light short, stop loss $72,000, target $70,000–$69,500
- Breakout: Hold $71,800 chase long, stop loss $71,500; break below $68,800 chase short, stop loss $69,200
Medium-term (1–4 weeks)
- Rebound: $72,000–$74,000 batch reduce position/short, stop loss $75,600
- Pullback: $65,000–$68,000 batch low accumulate, stop loss $63,000
- Position: Light position mainly, strict stop loss, no holding against the market
Long-term (Q2–Q4)
- Layout: Q2–Q3 batch build position, buy on every dip, focus $60,000–$70,000 range
- Hold: Q4 main uptrend hold, target $100,000+, no frequent trading
📝 Risk Warning
- Macro: Federal Reserve rate hike, Middle East conflict, US dollar strength, trigger liquidity squeeze
- Technical: False breakout, leverage liquidation, hash power concentration, exacerbate volatility
- Regulation: Stablecoin regulation, SEC enforcement, suppress market sentiment
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- Short-term (1–3 days): Converging triangle reversal + oscillation dominated, likely repeating in $68,800–$71,800 range
- Medium-term (1–4 weeks): Bearish oscillation correction, rebound height limited, difficult to break $75,000 previous high
- Long-term (Q2–Q4): Suppression followed by rise, Q4 expected to welcome cycle main uptrend
🧩 Short-term Trend (1–3 days)
1. Technical Analysis
- Pattern: Converging triangle endpoint, upper rail $71,000–$71,200, lower rail $68,800–$69,000, reversal window already open
- Indicators: 4H MACD red column shrinking, KDJ high position turnaround, bull momentum weakening; daily bear momentum volume reduced but not reversed
- Volume: Rebound with shrinking volume, pullback with moderate volume increase, insufficient bid support
2. Scenario Analysis
- Scenario A (Upward breakout): Hold $71,800 + 4H volume close positive → Look up to $72,500–$73,000, likely pullback thereafter
- Scenario B (Downward breakdown): Break below $68,800 + 4H volume close negative → Explore $68,000–$67,500, trigger stop-loss selling pressure
- Scenario C (Oscillation): Repeated within range → High sell low buy, $70,000–$71,000 bull-bear dividing line
📊 Medium-term Trend (1–4 weeks)
1. Core Pressure
- Macro: Federal Reserve maintains high rates longer, 0% rate cut probability in 4/6 months, June rate hike expectations warm up, suppressing non-yielding assets
- Technical: Daily MA20/30/60 downward pressure, no breakthrough of downtrend line, medium-term bearish
- Funds: ETF outflows, whale selling pressure, leverage liquidation negative feedback, insufficient incremental capital
2. Key Levels
- Resistance: $71,800 (strong pressure) → $74,000 (Fibonacci 0.786) → $75,600 (previous high)
- Support: $68,000 (weekly support) → $65,000 (strong support) → $63,000 (February low)
3. Trend Path
- High probability: Oscillating decline + oversold rebound alternating, rebounds difficult to break $74,000, center of gravity gradually lower
- Low probability: Macro shift (rate cut expectations ease) + fund inflow → Break $75,600, initiate medium-term rebound
🚀 Long-term Trend (Q2–Q4 2026)
1. Institutional Consensus
- First half (Q2): Oscillating bottom grinding, macro, regulation, funds repeatedly disturbing, no trending market
- Q3: Bottom building stabilization, liquidity expectations improve, ETF fund inflow, miner clearing complete
- Q4: Cycle main uptrend, halving effect + liquidity easing + institutional reallocation convergence, target $100,000+
2. Key Drivers
- Liquidity: Federal Reserve rate cuts late Q3–Q4, US dollar weakens, funds flow back to risk assets
- Supply-demand: Post-halving supply reduction, ETF continuous inflow, miner selling pressure weakens
- Regulation: "Clear Act" lands, uncertainty eliminated, institutions enter compliant
🎯 Operating Strategy (By Period)
Short-term (Intraday/1–3 days)
- Range: $69,800–$70,000 light long, stop loss $68,700, target $71,000–$71,200
- Range: $71,000–$71,200 light short, stop loss $72,000, target $70,000–$69,500
- Breakout: Hold $71,800 chase long, stop loss $71,500; break below $68,800 chase short, stop loss $69,200
Medium-term (1–4 weeks)
- Rebound: $72,000–$74,000 batch reduce position/short, stop loss $75,600
- Pullback: $65,000–$68,000 batch low accumulate, stop loss $63,000
- Position: Light position mainly, strict stop loss, no holding against the market
Long-term (Q2–Q4)
- Layout: Q2–Q3 batch build position, buy on every dip, focus $60,000–$70,000 range
- Hold: Q4 main uptrend hold, target $100,000+, no frequent trading
📝 Risk Warning
- Macro: Federal Reserve rate hike, Middle East conflict, US dollar strength, trigger liquidity squeeze
- Technical: False breakout, leverage liquidation, hash power concentration, exacerbate volatility
- Regulation: Stablecoin regulation, SEC enforcement, suppress market sentiment
#加密市场回涨 $BTC
